The data of VCIOM-Sputnik daily omnibus reveals a trend towards steady decrease in the number of those willing to leave Russia; the choices are more reasonable now.
MOSCOW, July 4, 2017. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a survey devoted to Russian emigration mood.
The data show that the number of Russian emigrants has considerably decreased over a year: in 2016, 21% of Russians said that the number of people moving permanently abroad had decreased compared to 31% who think so now. At the same time, the share of those who notice an increase has not changed over the same period (23%).
An overwhelming majority of respondents (89%, an all-time high) would not like to leave Russia permanently.
Whereas in 2015 the share of those willing to move abroad was 13%, in 2017 this share makes up 10% (they are mainly young Russians: 25% of those aged 18-24, 16% of the 25-34-year-olds and 21% of residents of Moscow and St Petersburg). Simultaneously, the share of those who are planning to move within a year or two has increased, but the share of those who never thought about that has decreased. Remarkably, the choices are now more reasonable: more Russians carry out specific steps towards moving abroad (they save up money, gather information about the future “home country”, get advice from friends who have moved, etc.).
Over a year, the reasons behind respondents’ desire to leave Russia have considerably changed: fewer Russians dream about higher living standards, now they are more attracted by social stability, climate and ecology, level of culture and respect for human rights. More Russians also cite their dissatisfaction with the authorities' politics and a strong reluctance to live in Russia/a strong passion for another country.
Germany is considered as the most attractive country; it is ranked second in the list of countries for alternative permanent residence.
The VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide survey was conducted on June 20-22, 2017. The survey involved 1,800 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Results for the 2011-2016 studies are based on household surveys.
In your opinion, has the number of people leaving Russia permanently increased, decreased or stayed at the same level over the recent years? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | |||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
Their number has increased | 29 | 18 | 24 | 23 | 23 |
Their number has stayed the same | 37 | 42 | 32 | 33 | 30 |
Their number has decreased | 21 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 31 |
Don’t know | 13 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 16 |
Would you like to move permanently abroad? (closed-ended question, one answer, %) | ||||||||
| 1991 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
Rather yes | 16 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
Rather no | 70 | 82 | 88 | 85 | 88 | 85 | 86 | 89 |
Don’t know | 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Have you thought about when you could move? If yes, when? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of those willing to move abroad) | ||||||
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
Within a year or two | 11 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 17 |
Within three to five years | 13 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
Within six to nine years | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
In a decade or later | 8 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
No, I have not thought about that | 39 | 50 | 43 | 49 | 51 | 43 |
I thought about that but I do not know when I can do that due to certain circumstances | 18 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 9 |
Are you carrying out any specific steps to move permanently abroad now or later? (closed-ended question, any number of answers, % of those willing to move permanently abroad) | |||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
I am saving money | 9 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 20 |
I am searching for information about the country I want to move | 20 | 21 | 26 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 20 |
I am learning a foreign language | 16 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 19 |
I am getting advice from friends who moved abroad | 19 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
I am getting additional education, skills that could help me find a job abroad | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
I am searching for information about resettlement programs | 8 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
I am searching for a job abroad | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
I am searching for an education program abroad | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
I am searching (I am hired) a job in an international company with an opportunity to move abroad | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
I am searching for opportunities to marry a foreigner | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
I do not do anything special/ Don’t know | 50 | 45 | 39 | 42 | 55 | 63 | 51 |
If you want to move permanently abroad, what is the reason why? (open-ended question, not more than three answers, % of those who are willing to move permanently abroad) | |||||||
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
Higher living standards/salaries/pensions/benefits | 41 | 39 | 51 | 47 | 40 | 50 | 33 |
Social protection/stability | 14 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
I do not like the current government, policies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 13 |
Better climate, ecology | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
Higher cultural level/different mentality | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
I strongly oppose living in Russia/ I like another country | 8 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
Respect for human rights, laws | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
Relatives live abroad | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
It is interesting (I spend there vacation; I always dreamt of it/I want to see the world) | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
More career/business opportunities | 16 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
Russian authorities are not fighting corruption | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Better health services | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Russian unemployment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
High taxes in Russia/it is not clear what tax fees are spent on | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Opportunity to get high quality education | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
In Russia there are high levels of social problems (alcoholism, drug addiction, crime)/low level of supervision over the execution | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
To marry | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Don’t know | 11 | 20 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 28 | 13 |
Could you name, please, a country where you would like to move permanently abroad? (open-ended question, one answer, % of those willing to move permanently abroad; answers for each line mentioned by at least 1% of respondents) | ||
| 2016 | 2017 |
Germany | 12 | 13 |
USA | 7 | 10 |
Australia | 2 | 7 |
Italy | 3 | 5 |
England | 4 | 4 |
New Zealand | 2 | 3 |
Spain | 2 | 3 |
Israel | 0 | 3 |
Canada | 3 | 2 |
Switzerland | 2 | 2 |
United Arab Emirates | 2 | 2 |
Bulgaria | 0 | 2 |
Norway | 0 | 2 |
Cyprus | 0 | 2 |
France | 5 | 1 |
Thailand | 2 | 1 |
Finland | 1 | 1 |
Latvia | 0 | 1 |
Portugal | 1 | 1 |
Czech Republic | 1 | 1 |
Belarus | 0 | 1 |
India | 0 | 1 |
Cuba | 0 | 1 |
Argentine | 0 | 1 |
Brazil | 0 | 1 |
Hungary | 0 | 1 |
Kazakhstan | 0 | 1 |
Ukraine | 0 | 1 |
Dominican Republic | 0 | 1 |
Montenegro | 0 | 1 |
European country (not specified) | 0 | 1 |
Asian country (not specified) | 0 | 1 |
Other | 16 | 3 |
Don’t know | 35 | 19 |
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