Data obtained as a result of an All-Russian survey conducted by VCIOM on September 22-23, 2007

Unified Russia; 46.9

Communist Party, KPRF; 6.7

Fair Russia: Motherland - Pensioners - Life; 5.8

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, LDPR; 5.3

Union of Right Forces (SPS); 0.7

Yabloko; 1.1

Civilian Power; 0.3

Agrarian Party of Russia; 0.7

Other; 2.7

I am not going to vote; 14.7

Hard to say; 15.1

Forecast for distribution of mandates in the State Duma of the 5th convocation

Unified Russia (237)

LDPR (48)

Fair Russia (76)

KPRF (89)

Forecast of the voter turn out in the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation

In the course of the survey, carried out by VCIOM on September 22-23, 2007, 67,9% of respondents stated that they will probably participate in the elections (68,5% did so in August and 57,5% in May). The figure for August includes 31,3% who will definitely do so, and 36,6% who will most likely participate in the voting process. 19,2% of respondents are not going to take part in the elections (the figure amounted to 22% in August and to 28,9% in May), which includes 10,2% of those who will rather not take part in the elections and 9% who will definitely not go to vote). 

The probabilistic model of the electoral behavior considers, not only the proclaimed intentions of voters, but also their previous voting experience and motivation to vote. The probability of voter turn out at the elections if they were to take place this Sunday, amounts to 49,2% (49,5% in August, 45,4% in May).

Forecast of voting results on December 2, 2007

The forecast has been formed taking into account a series of factors, which consider the divergences between the parties' ratings, revealed in the course of opinion polls, and elections results.

The probabilistic model has been formed on the basis of the long-term observations carried out by VCIOM and is based on the application of the step-up and step-down coefficients, which are calculated by comparing the survey results and the actual elections results (all in all, 540 observations were used: pairs like "party result - party rating according to the survey").

Forecast for distribution of mandates in the State Duma of the 5th convocation

Only 4 parties manage to overcome the 7%-barrier: that being "Unified Russia", KPRF, "Fair Russia" and LDPR. The share of "unproductive" votes totals 16,6%. Accordingly, the deputy mandates in the State Duma of the 5th convocation may be distributed as follows:

The forecast given is presented prior to the official start of the election campaigns. The situation may undergo changes in the course of the election campaign. Therefore, VCIOM will further attentively track the electoral situation and will present its next public forecast as to the results of the elections to the State Duma on October 30, 2007.

Dynamics of Forecast Indices

The forecast of the voter turn out has decreased by 0,3% from 49,5% to 49,2% during the last month. The electoral indices of political parties have also undergone certain changes: