Results of our studies

MOSCOW, December 20, 2007 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents information on how Russians estimate D. Medvedev's nomination for president of Russia and what they think about his chances to win in the elections.

If presidential elections were to take place this Sunday, nearly half of Russians would vote for D. Medvedev (45%). V. Zhirinovsky and G. Zyuganov are lagging far behind of him, each of them receiving no more than 5% of the respondents' vote. B. Nemtsov and M. Fradkov will each gain 1% of the vote, whereas other presidential contenders received less than that. Nearly one third of respondents finds it difficult to make a choice on this issue. D. Medvedev enjoys the most support among "Unified Russia" voters (they managed to elect him in the first ballot - 61%). 46% of "Fair Russia" supporters would vote for D. Medvedev, 7% for V. Zhirinovsky. KPRF as well as LDPR voters give preference to their party leaders (55% and 53% respectively), even though there are many D. Medvedev's followers among these parties' electorates (18% and 14%).

The majority of Russians are informed of the fact that D. Medvedev has been proclaimed the presidential contender from four political parties ("Unified Russia", "Fair Russia", Agrarian party and "Civilian power"). This includes nearly half of respondents who have heard a lot about it (49%) and over a third (37%) of respondents who know about it but do not know the details. The youth of 18-24 years of age are the least informed of the fact, 37% of respondents in this age group have heard a lot about D. Medvedev being proclaimed the presidential contender, whereas among respondents who fall into the age group of 25-44 years, 47-50% do. Among the group of 45-year-olds and older respondents a still bigger share have heard of that, that being 54-55%.

The level of awareness of the fact that V. Putin has approved D. Medvedev as presidential contender is nearly the same: 48% of respondents have heard a lot about it and 37% who have heard something about it. Here too, the youth is less informed of this issue than other age groups: the share of those who have seen in mass media any information concerning D. Medvedev being proclaimed by V. Putin grows from 41% in the age group of 18 to 24 years of age to 51-52% in the age group of 45 years and older.

Two thirds of respondents perceive D. Medvedev as V. Putin's successor as head of state. Only 16% of respondents consider, that approval of the first deputy Prime Minister by the president in power does not mean that D. Medvedev should automatically become the successor. Every fifth respondent (18%) finds it difficult to provide any estimation on the issue. Supporters of "Fair Russia" and "Unified Russia" are more confident that D. Medvedev is V. Putin's successor (70-73%), than voters of KPRF or LDPR (64-67%).

The overwhelming majority of respondents (72%) predict that D. Medvedev will win the presidential election campaign. Over a half of them (55%) believe, that he will get the landslide victory, and 17% agree, that he will win, but only by a small margin. Only 4% of respondents assume that D. Medvedev will have to suffer defeat. Every fourth respondent (24%) finds it difficult to provide a forecast on the issue.

Supporters of "Unified Russia" and "Fair Russia" are more convinced of this politician's victory at the presidential elections 2008, than voters of KPRF or LDPR are. 1-2% of "Unified Russia" and "Fair Russia" voters and a significantly bigger share of KPRF and LDPR followers (9-10%) assume that D. Medvedev will lose in the elections. 35% of LDPR, 40% of KPRF, 56% of "Fair Russia" and 61% of "Unified Russia" electorate expect that he will get the landslide victory.

The initiative all-Russia opinion poll was conducted by VCIOM on December 15-16, 2007. 1600 respondents were interviewed in 153 population areas of 46 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.

 

If presidential elections were to take place this Sunday, which of the following presidential contenders would you vote for?

 

Total respondents

Political party supporters

"Unified Russia"

KPRF

LDPR

"Fair Russia"

Bukovsky Vladimir

0

0

-

-

-

Gerashenko Viktor

0

0

-

-

-

Glazyev Sergei

0

0

-

-

3

Zhirinovsky Vladimir

5

1

1

53

7

Zyuganov Gennady

5

0

55

-

2

Kasyanov Mikhail

0

0

-

1

-

Medvedev Mikhail

45

61

18

14

46

Nemtsov Boris

1

0

-

-

1

Ryzhkov Vladimir

0

-

1

-

-

Semigin Gennady

0

-

-

-

-

Hakamada Irina

0

0

-

1

1

Khodorkovsky Mikhail

0

-

1

1

-

Chubais Anatoly

0

-

-

-

-

Fradkov Mikhail

1

1

-

-

-

Yavlinsky Grigory

0

-

-

-

-

Other option

5

5

2

3

8

I would not vote

8

2

3

3

2

Hard to say

30

28

20

23

29

Have you heard that D. Medvedev has been proclaimed the presidential contender from four political parties?

 

Total respondents

Age, years

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-59

60 and older

Yes, I have heard a lot about it

49

37

50

47

54

55

I have heard about it but I do not know the details

37

42

37

40

36

33

It is the first time that I hear of it

11

18

12

9

9

11

Hard to say

3

3

1

4

1

1

Vladimir Putin has approved D. Medvedev as the presidential contender. Have you heard about it?

 

Total respondents

Age, years

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-59

60 and older

Yes, I have heard a lot about it

48

41

46

46

52

51

I have heard about it but I do not know the details

37

37

37

40

35

34

It is the first time that I hear of it

11

19

13

9

10

9

Hard to say

4

3

4

5

3

6

What do you think Dmitry Medvedev's chances to win at the presidential elections 2008 are?

 

Total respondents

Political party supporters

"Unified Russia"

KPRF

LDPR

"Fair Russia"

Medvedev will get a landslide victory

55

61

40

35

56

Medvedev will win but by a small margin

17

15

23

21

25

Medvedev will lose the coming elections

4

2

9

10

1

Hard to say

24

22

28

34

18


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