MOSCOW, 14 March 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey to mark the tenth anniversary of the Crimean spring.

Nothing but pride

This year marks the 10th anniversary of Russia’s reunification with Crimea and Sevastopol.  In views of Russians this event can rightfully be called the most considerable national achievement in the recent 10-15 years. A March survey reveals that a vast majority of Russians believe that by doing so Russia has shown its readiness to defend its national interest (85%).

Most of Russians feel pride about this landmark event (57%): over the entire period of measurement (since 2018) this emotion has been mentioned by at least half of respondents (48% and higher). Every seventh expresses admiration (15%); every fifth is indifferent (“no emotions”, 20%). Russians rarely express negative emotions, such as disappointment or condemnation (2%, each).

Over the entire period of measurement (since 2019) Russians have had favorable views of Crimea’s incorporation into Russia (81-93%); the latest survey suggests that 86% of Russians reported so with a different degree of confidence; 9% gave unfavorable assessments (vs 3% three years ago), which is due to a high percentage of those who are undecided (14% vs. 5% in 2024).

What is meant to happen will happen

Over the recent five years Russians have been confident that Crimea’s incorporation was historically predestined: it would have happened sooner or later (54% in 2019; 55% in 2021; 60% in 2023; 59% in 2024), whereas in 2018 more than half of respondents ascribe this achievement to president Vladimir Putin (59%), today, 32%.

All those years (since 2014) Russians believed that Crimea’s incorporation into Russia was the right decision (86%), with a record high of 96% in 2014. The key argument of those who support this viewpoint is to restore historical justice (“Crimea is traditionally Russian land”, “they are our people/Crimea has always been ours” – 51%; 53% in 2023); every tenth mentioned the ethnic composition of the peninsula (10%, including: “most of the Crimean population is Russian”, “they are our people/unity of people”). A further 7% pointed to voluntary return of Crimea by Russia (“a referendum was held/people themselves decided to be part of Russia”). A part of respondents pointed to national security (12%, including “Black Sea fleet/access to the Black Sea”, “strategically important point/ location of our military bases”, “Russia’s strategic security”, “if it had not been incorporated into Russia, NATO would have deployed its military bases”).

Life after the incorporation

Crimea’s incorporation into Russia caused controversy throughout the global community and triggered a war of sanctions. Contrary to economic difficulties, Russians are true to their beliefs: most of them consider that Crimea’s incorporation into the Russian Federation brought more good to the country (73%). About the same percentage of respondents recognize a key role of Crimea and Sevastopol in providing military capabilities of Russia (77%).

Anyway, it’s not only Russia that benefited: according to 74% of respondents the incorporation boosted the Crimean development (73% in 2019; 76% in 2023). Although fewer Russians believe that Crimea can become a world resort in the near future (−12 p.p. since 2016), seven in ten Russians are still optimistic about that (70%).

Three-quarters of respondents believe that after Crimea’s incorporation into Russia the life of Crimeans changed (77%), including 66% who point to considerable changes. Most of respondents in this group mention primarily positive changes (66% of those who think that life changed); every fourth, both positive and negative changes (24%, −6 p.p. over the recent year).

VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted 2 March, 2024. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18+ took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. Data were weighted for social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of March 2, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7529; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0149; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0760. Calculations are based on the corporate standard: https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

* In 2019-2020, the question wording was as follows: “How do you generally assess Crimea’s reunification with the Russian Federation: positively or negatively?”

* Data presented are of a survey conducted between 16.03.2014 and 23.03.2014.

Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (“Express” project); stratified multi-stage quota-based sample; quotas based on socio-demographic parameters, representative of the Russian population aged 18+ by settlement type, sex, gender, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents.