MOSCOW, April 10, 2009. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data on how Russians estimate the level of crime in their residence area over recent half of year, which forecast they make, and what their opinion regarding crime increase or decrease is based upon.
More than half of Russians (52%) report that life in their surrounding has become more dangerous over the past six months (42% - rather dangerous, 10% - certainly dangerous). Those who think so are often residents of North-Western Federal District (58%), and residents of the Urals and Siberians (57% for each). Meanwhile, 26% of respondents consider that situation in the city or rural area where they live became safer (21% - rather safer, 5% - certainly safer). The respondents who have such opinion are mainly from the Far East of Russia (38%) and Southerners (37%). 22% were undecided.
Metropolitan residents (Moscow and St.Petersburg) are likely to think that life became more dangerous. The larger the locality is, the more often its residents report their life got more dangerous over the past six years: 38% of rural area citizens against 75% of Muscovites and St.Petersburgians. On the contrary, the part of those who mark increased level of safety in their locality is growing from 6% among capital residents to 35% among those residing in rural areas.
Russians are divided in forecasts of changes in crime rates for the nearest six months:40% of respondents consider that the level of crime will not change, 39% are confident that it will go up. Only 7% are expecting decline in crime rate. Those who forecast its increase are basically residents of capitals and respondents with low income. Muscovites and St.Petersburgians predict crime rise in the nearest months (64%). The share of such respondents is also highest among respondents with low financial state self-esteem (44%). Rural area residents, as well as Russians with high financial state self-esteem more often than others predict no changes in crime rate (48% and 45% respectively).
The arguments of respondents who are confident that the crime rate will go up are based on such economic factors as growing unemployment (49%), inflation and falling living standards (28%), crisis (22%). Other reasons are: poor performance of security (police) bodies (9%), migrants and decline of morality (5% for each), lack of opportunities for youth to arrange their life (3%), drug addiction and drunkenness (2%).
Russians often expect decrease in crime rate in connection with effective work made by the Ministry of Interior, authorities, and public organizations (38%). Other arguments include living improvement (12%), decrease of number of those people who are able to break the law (7%), Juvenile Code (5%). Simultaneously, 40% of Russians who are confident about the decrease in crime rate cannot substantiate their opinion.
The initiative Russian opinion poll was conducted on April 4 and 5, 2009.
1600 respondents were interviewed at 140 sampling points in 42 regions of Russia.
The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.
In your opinion, life in your city/village has become ... over the past six months. (close-ended question, one answer) | ||||||
| Total respondents | Type of settlement | ||||
Moscow & Saint Petersburg | More than 500thousand inhabitants | 100-500thousand | Less 100thousand | Rural areа | ||
Safer, than before | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
Rather safer, than before | 21 | 5 | 19 | 23 | 23 | 25 |
Rather more dangerous than before | 42 | 57 | 46 | 43 | 42 | 31 |
Certainly more dangerous than before | 10 | 18 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6 |
Hard to tell | 22 | 19 | 21 | 17 | 21 | 28 |
In your opinion, life in your city/village has become ... over the past six months. (close-ended question, one answer) | ||||||||
| Total respondents | Federal Districts* | ||||||
CFD | NWFD | SFD | PFD | UFD | SFD | DFD | ||
Safer, than before | 5 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
Rather safer, than before | 21 | 16 | 16 | 28 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 25 |
Rather more dangerous than before | 42 | 37 | 54 | 34 | 49 | 46 | 46 | 31 |
Certainly more dangerous than before | 10 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Hard to tell | 22 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
In your opinion will the crime rate in your city/village change in the nearest five or six months? Will it increase, decrease or remain the same? (close-ended question, one answer) | ||||||
| Total respondents | Type of settlement | ||||
Moscow & Saint Petersburg | More than 500thousand inhabitants | 100-500thousand | Less 100thousand | Rural areа | ||
Increase | 39 | 64 | 49 | 41 | 35 | 22 |
Decrease | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 11 |
It will not change | 40 | 30 | 32 | 40 | 41 | 48 |
Hard to tell | 15 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 18 |
If you think that the crime rate will increase, then could you tell why? (open-ended question, any number of answers from those who think the crime rate will grow up) | |
Unemployment increase | 49 |
Falling living standards, lack of money, inflation | 28 |
Crisis | 22 |
Poor performance of Min. of Interior bodies (i.e. police) and authorities | 9 |
Migrants | 5 |
Moral decline, spitefulness of people | 5 |
Youth cannot find job, arrange their life; there are no youth sections | 3 |
Drug addiction, drunkenness | 2 |
Other | 6 |
Hard to tell | 4 |
If you think that the crime rate will decrease, then could you tell why? (open-ended question, any number of answers from those who think the crime rate will drop) | |
Effective work to fight crime rate of the Ministry of Interior authorities (i.e. police) and public organizations | 38 |
Life will get better, and crime rate will drop | 12 |
The number of people who are able to break the law goes down | 7 |
Juvenile Code would help to solve the problem | 5 |
Other | 3 |
Hard to tell | 40 |
*Abbreviations
CFD - Central Federal District
NWFD - North-Western Federal District
SFD - Southern Federal District
PFD - Volga Federal District
UFD - Urals Federal District
SFD - Siberian Federal District
DFD - Far-Eastern Federal District
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or www.wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM,
the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!