MOSCOW, 4 December 2024. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a monitoring survey devoted to Russian credit behavior.

We (don’t) take out loans!

Based on a study conducted by VCIOM, the attractiveness of loans for Russians changes year-by-year which is due to a number of factors, both objective (income level, socio-economic situation, loan offers from financial institutions, etc.) and subjective (a sense of stability, personal beliefs, level of financial literacy, etc.). In 2009 and 2013, Russians showed moderate interest in this financial tool, followed by a credit boom in 2017 – 58% (+32 and 27 p.p. compared to 2009 and 2013 data respectively). Later (2019-2022) the figure varied from 49% to 53%; in the recent two years the indicator has been stable at 46%, meaning that today Russians are less willing to take out loans than two years ago. Given that the interest rate has increased, and loans have become more expensive, credit activity is not so pronounced: since 2022 it lost only 5 p.p., but in the long term, since 2009, it has intensified almost twofold.

Those who say their family has a loan are often working age Russians – Millennials (57-58%) and the Reform generation (56%). The higher the household income, the more the need to get a loan is. About half of Russians who say their income is below average say they have loans (54%), which is 1.3-fold higher compared to those who have good income (40%). Another factor is a place of residence. Residents of Moscow and St Petersburg are less likely to have loans than residents of million-plus cities (35% vs. 52%); as to other areas (cities with a population of 950 thousand inhabitants and lower) the level of credit activity vary from 41% to 49%.

Debt load of the Russian households

Over the recent five years the debt load of the Russian households has not changed much: as in 2019, most of Russians measure their financial capabilities with debt obligations. Every second borrower (Russian who has at least one loan in the family; group share — 46%) reports to spend 10-30% of monthly family income to pay off the loan (50%; 47% in 2019); a further 17%, from 31% to 50% (in 2019 — 21%). Every tenth Russian says that the loan payment takes about half of household income (10%; 2019 — 13%).

The better the financial situation, the lower the debt load: half of the borrowers who say their financial situation is good or very good, spend 10-20% of their monthly income to pay off the debt (45% vs 11% of those who have low income). The borrowers whose income is above average are often overly indebted: every fourth in this group has to pay an amount of money that exceeds their monthly income (25% vs. 5% of the ‘rich’).

Paying off debts

Russian borrowers largely cope with payouts: 64% of those who have a loan (group share – 46%) say they have not experienced difficulties paying off the debt over the last twelve months (66% in 2019). Thirty-four percent of respondents say the opposite.

The lower the debt load, the more chances there are to avoid future problems. Eighty percent of borrowers who spend 10-20% of their family’s monthly income and 59% of those who spend 21-50% have not had problems paying off the debt. Debt-laden households (their debt payments amount to 50% of their monthly income and more) found it difficult to pay out their debt over the last year (61%).

Russians who have a loan are quite optimistic about paying off the debt. The percentage of the borrowers who think they are able to pay off their debt has increased from 19% to 25% over the recent five years, reaching the 2017 figure (28%). The share of the moderate optimists who say they need to make an extra effort to pay off the loan has not changed much over the measurement period (39-44%), reaching 41% in November. On the contrary, the number of pessimists has slightly decreased since the last survey: in total, three-in-ten respondents are not confident if they are able to pay off their debt (32%; −6 p.p. compared to 2019): 25% of respondents say that they will be able to pay off the loan but at utmost strain; 7% do not think it is possible.

Confidence in the ability to pay off the debt is related to the size of the debt.  Those who say they have no difficulties paying off the debt (“I can easily pay off the debt”) are often the borrowers whose monthly payment is 10-20% of their household income (44%). 

Russian VCIOM-Sputnik telephone survey was conducted November 26, 2024. A total of 1,600 respondents aged 18 and older took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interview, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 26 November, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7447; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0207; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0762. Calculations are based on corporate standard https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

 ** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.

* up to 2020-2023 there were answers such as “one loan”, “tow loans”, “ three loans”, “ more than three loans”.

Before 2017, surveys were conducted through household face-to-face interviews (Express project); stratified multi-stage sample, with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters; representative of the Russian population aged 18+, according to type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents.