MOSCOW, March 24, 2009. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data how Russians` opinion towards economic crisis changed I March, and what the influence of the economic situation on consumer behavior, income and expenses of Russians is.

Economic crisis: assessment and forecasts made by Russians

The share of those who estimate the situation as being crisis is  steadily increasing (in March  previous year this share was 14%, in December - 34%, in January-March - up to 43-44%) or "catastrophic" (in March 2008 it was - 1%, in December - 8%, in March this year - 12%).  Every third Russian report unstable economic situation (33%), and only 4% - stable (in September 19% thought so). And finally, only 1% notes the dynamic economic development.

The crisis is gradually becoming major discussion topic among the majority of Russians: the share of those who actively discuss the economic situation has increased from 59% to 68% since January. Let us remember that only 17% said so in March 2008. On the contrary, the share of those Russians who do not take part in discussions slightly decreased - from 17% in January to 10% in March. Meanwhile, 21% report that such discussions are being held in their circles: the share of such respondents has declined more than threefold over the year (in March 2008 68% said so).

As before, Russians most often think that the mass media not fully and openly cover the topic of crisis (39%). On the contrary, 27% think that the information about economic problems is not sufficient to understand what happens. 24% of Russians tend to think that the mass media often exaggerate the consequences of the crisis and fan the flames.

As a month ago, respondents think that Russia suffered most from the crisis, the share of such them increased from 43% in February to 47% in March. 34% think that the situation is critical in the United States of America (34%, in February - 30%), every fifth (11%) are confident that European Union countries suffered more than others. Let us remember, that in December 2008 Russians considered the USA to be the main victim of the crisis (47%), in January Russians divided in opinions: 37% pointed out the USA, 34% - Russia.

There is a slight decrease in the share of Russians who are extremely worried about the crisis - from 56% to 51%. 36% of respondents reported they are worried about the crisis but not too much, (in February - 31%). 8% report no worries about the economic situation, 3% are not worried at all. 

Earnings and savings

Since January till February the financial state assessment index ("How would you assess the financial state of your family at present?" has dropped to the level of 2005: from 43 to 35. Let us remember that in September 2008 this figure was 60, followed by the downward trend.

Meanwhile, more than half of Russians marked the decrease of their earnings over the previous year (56%). The share of such respondents are the highest among those who feel the lack of money even to buy products (66%). 39% of Russians report that their income has not changed over the month - most of them are middle class representatives (50%). Only 2% said their income has increased.  

If in 2008 15% of respondents reported savings increase (14% - slight increase, 1% - considerable increase), then now - only 6% say so (5% and 1% respectively). On the contrary, the share of those who report decrease in savings has increased: from 18% in 2008 (11% - slightly decreased, 7% - considerably decreased) to 29% (15% and 14% respectively).  34% of Russians report that their amount of savings has not changed (in 2008 - 41%). 30% were undecided.

The share of Russians who do not make any savings grew up to 72% compared with 2008 - 68% (they were 64% in 2005). Most of them are Russians who have the lack of money even to buy products (92%). 23% say that they are saving money (in 2008 they were 26%), those who tend to do so are mostly middle class representatives (46%).

Over the year the share of Russians who are below the poverty line (they are those who do not have enough money even to buy products) has almost doubled - from 8% in February 2008 to 14% this year. The number of the poor (those who have money to buy products, but not to buy clothes) has also increased - from 28% to 32%. On the contrary, the average layer has narrowed (money is not enough for buying products and clothes but not consumer durables) - from 46% to 39%. And finally, 12% of respondents identify themselves as middle class.

Expenses and savings

The main signs of the crisis Russians have faced are prices increase (85%) and earnings decrease (40%). This is followed by refusal from buying particular goods and services (25%), delay in paying salaries, scholarships, allowances and their reduction (21% for each), dismissals from work (17%), panic and depression and  worsening of public utilities service quality (14% for each), reduced working hours and forced vacations (13%), the need to support relatives and borrow money (12% for each), non-payment of benefits and increase of  the crime rate (11% for each), credit denial (9%). The following crisis symptoms are at the bottom of the rating: inability to pay on loan (7%), worsening of working conditions, absence of the usual goods in stores and raise of loan rates (6% for each), refusal from the bank to issue money (3%).

The crisis made Russians save up, first of all, on food products (50%), clothes and shoes (42%).  30% of Russians reduced their expenditures on entertainment, 29% - on recreation and vacation. 24% of respondents save up  on medical treatment and medicines, 20% - on acquisition of major household appliances, 18% - on big purchases (property, cars), 17% - on communications (including mobile communication). 16% of respondents cut their transport expenses, 15% - save up on small household appliances, 14% (for each) - on luxury items and public utilities, 6% - on education. Nevertheless, 12% of Russians report they do not economize at all.

Spending on food still makes up more than half of the family income among 51% of respondents: 41% report they spend 50-74% of their total income on food, and 10% - from 75% and above. 37% of Russians say that they spend 25-49% of the family budget on food products (29% said so in 2007). Only 6% report less than quarter of income spent on food (25% and less of the family incomes).

As to public utilities payments, Russians spend less than half of their total income on them (25-49%); the share of such respondents is 45%. 35% of Russians spend approximately a quarter of the family budget on them (25%); the share of such respondents has decreased since the previous year (from 40%).  Respondents who report to spend from 50% to 74% or even more than 75% of the total income on public utilities are 11% and 2% (respectively).

Forecasts and intentions

The social optimism index ("In your opinion will your family live better or worse than now in a year?")  has also decreased, compared to December 2008: in the end of 2008 it was 40, in January and February it reached constant 34. It is the lowest index value over the entire assessment period (let us remember that the lowest figures over the recent years were fixed in April 2005 (43) and November previous year (37)).

Despite the current economic situation, more than third of Russians are confident that their family financial state will not change in the nearest year (38%). 32% of respondents are pessimistic as they expect deterioration of their financial situation. Simultaneously, 13% think that the financial state of their families will be improved over the year. 18% were undecided.

The share of Russians who think that the crisis is a long-term process and there will not be a fast way out of it coming soon has almost doubled: in March 2008 those who thought so were 31%, this March the share of such respondents makes up 59%. There is a slight decrease in the number of Russians who are confident the fast way out of crisis will be found soon - from 33% to 27% (25% thought so a year ago, in March 2008). 14% were undecided.

The initiative Russian opinion poll was conducted in February-March 2009. 1600 of respondents were interviewed in 140 settlements in 42 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.