Cold War resumption index has doubled since spring and reached a new historical maximum.
MOSCOW, December 1, 2014. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the information describing the results of the survey concerning the attitudes of Russians towards the probability of a cold war between Russia and Western countries as well as the effects this war may have on respondents` families.
Today respondents think the probability of a new cold war is more real than it was seven years ago: the index* measuring the Russians` assessments of the probability of a new cold war soared 70 points (from 36 points in March this year). Remarkably, until 2013 the index was negative.
One-third of respondents (31%) think that new confrontation between Western countries and Russia is possible (5% - very possible, 26% - rather possible), and every fourth (25%) is confident that the cold war is on. Those who believe that the situation may deteriorate and that the war is already on say that it is due to the aggressiveness of the United States and European countries (23%). Others mention the general situation in the world (15%), sanctions (14%), and aggravation of international relations (12%) et cet.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents seriously doubt that the cold war is possible, and 7% think this scenario is not real. Twenty percent of them believe that Russian authorities will not allow it happen; 13% think that no one will benefit from that; 8% consider that today it is not possible, other respondents think that Russia is strong (8%), and other countries fear and envy Russia (4%) et cet.
If tensions increase between Russia and Western countries for 18% of respondents it will be a tough period. Seventeen percent of respondents consider that a new phase of the cold war will not affect their lives; 8% expect a decrease in living conditions; 3% expect inflation, and 2% predict new economic crisis. Two percent of Russians are afraid of new military actions and conscription. Two percent of Russians are concerned about possible restrictions on overseas travelling; 1% is afraid of new sanctions.
*Cold war index shows if Russians think that the resumption of the Cold War is possible in the near future. The index is based on the question “There has recently been much talk of the resumption of the Cold War and a new confrontation between Russia and the West (basically the US.). How would you assess the probability of a cold war?” If the answer is “the war is on”, the coefficient is 3; “very possible” 2; “quite possible” 1; “hardly possible” -1; absolutely not possible” -2. The index is measured in points and can vary between -200 and 300. The higher the value of index is, the more possible the confrontation is.
The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted on November 22-23, 2014. 1600 respondents were interviewed in 132 communities in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3,5%.
How would you assess the probability of a cold war? (closed-ended question, one answer) | |||||||
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | II.2013 | VIII.2013 | III.2014 | XI.2014 |
It is very possible | 8 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 5 |
It is quite possible | 32 | 29 | 29 | 36 | 37 | 42 | 26 |
It is hardly possible | 41 | 43 | 38 | 47 | 44 | 32 | 28 |
It is absolutely not possible | 7 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
The war is on | -** | -** | -** | -** | -** | -** | 25 |
Don`t know | 12 | 13 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
Index* | -6 | -22 | -6 | -10 | 2 | 36 | 70 |
** Until November 2014 this option was not offered
Why do you think so? (open-ended question, not more than 3 answers, % of those who think that cold war is possible and is on) | |
| Total respondents |
The U.S. an Europe make a war | 23 |
Recent developments, situation | 15 |
Due to sanctions | 14 |
Aggravation of international situation | 12 |
Situation in Ukraine | 7 |
Information provided by mass media | 5 |
People are afraid of us and envy us | 3 |
The war has not finished | 3 |
I do not know, I did not think | <1 |
Other | 7 |
Don`t know | 16 |
Why do you think so? (open-ended question, not more than 3 answers, % of those who think that cold war is hardly possible or not possible at all) | |
| Total respondents |
President and government will not allow it happen | 20 |
No one will benefit (economically); everything will be solved in a peaceful way | 13 |
It is not possible; time has changed | 8 |
Russia is a strong power | 8 |
People are afraid of us and envy us | 4 |
I think so; I hope so | 4 |
The U.S. and Europe make a war | 3 |
The war is pointless (in political sense) | 2 |
Many facts suggest that | 2 |
I do not know; I did not think | 2 |
other | 6 |
Don`t know | 31 |
If the cold war between Russia and western countries is resumed, in your opinion, what consequences will it have for you and your family? (open-ended question, not more than 3 answers) | |
| Total respondents |
Negative consequences; hard times | 18 |
Poverty, decreased living conditions | 8 |
Inflation | 3 |
I do not know; I do not want to think about that | 3 |
A war will start; conscription | 2 |
Travelling abroad will be complicated; iron curtain will be drawn | 2 |
New economic crisis, economic collapse | 2 |
We had it once; we will tackle it again; we will survive | 2 |
Fears about one`s well-being, children, family | 2 |
Unemployment | 1 |
Situation will improve | 1 |
Everyone will die | 1 |
New sanctions will follow | 1 |
Arms race will start | <1 |
Lots of money will be spent on defense | <1 |
Nothing will change | 17 |
Other | 4 |
Don`t know | 39 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!