MOSCOW, 24 October 2023. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey devoted to the October 1993 events in Russia.
Black October 1993
Although a third of a century has passed since the October 1993 coup, most of Russians still keep it in their memory (32% of Russians say they are well aware of the October 1993 events; 56% heard something about it but do not know any details). As five years ago, the overall level of awareness is at 88% (90% in 2018), which is 8-10 percentage points higher compared to 2013 (80%). The increase is at the expense of a larger share of those who have a poor knowledge of the assault on the White house (+10 p.p. since 2013).
Every tenth respondent heard of the October 1993 crisis for the first time during the survey (10% vs 16% in 2013).
Least informed are young Russians aged 18-24: only 8% of them are aware of the assault on the White House; 57% heard something but do not know any details; every third respondent heard for the first time about those events during the survey (33%).
|
Planned action or coincidence?
As to the basic reasons behind the 1993 conflict, almost half of those who are informed (88%) do believe that the 1993 coup resulted from a split within the political establishment (47%); over the recent five years the share of those who support this viewpoint has increased by 13 percentage points compared to 2018. Today this view is shared by men and women (48% and 46% respectively), the rich and the poor (48% and 50% respectively), urban and rural area inhabitants (46–50% and 41% respectively), TV viewers and Internet users (48% and 42% respectively).
Every seventh respondent thinks that the October coup resulted from a split in views of the president and the parliament regarding reforms and economic development (15%, 22% in 2013); almost the same number of respondents say that the reason for the coup was a struggle between the supporters of the democratic values and the remnants of the Soviet system (13%, 19% in 2013). Only 2% consider those events to be caused by a combination of circumstances (5% in 2013; 7% in 2018); a further 15% are undecided.
Legislative power against executive power
Since 2013 the share of those who supported Boris Yeltsin in his opposition to the parliament has declined: 18% of those who are informed say they supported the first Russian president (vs 26% ten years ago). However, this is not due to an increase in the share of those who supported Khasbulatov and Rutskoy, but due to an increase in the number of the undecided (32% vs 20% in 2013). The percentage of those who have not figured out the situation has been steadily high (36%).
Military force — a need or a whim?
By various estimates, as a result of the armed conflict on 3-4 October 1993 more than 150 people were killed. A larger number of Russians is not determined whether the use of the armed force during those riots was justified: those who heard about the assault on the White House or know about it are twice as likely to be undecided compared to 2018 (22% vs 11%). Half of Russians among those who are aware say the use of the armed force was likely unjustified (53%; –10 p.p. compared to 2018); 25% oppose them.
Opinions on whether the use of the armed force was justified during the riots or not are shaped by political preferences. This measure was justified according to 38% of those who supported Boris Yeltsin (and 13% of those who supported Khasbulatov and Rutskoy). |
VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted October 13, 2023. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18+ were surveyed. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 2 July, 2023: cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.8248; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0174; response rate (RR)*** = 0.1546. calculations are based on corporate standards: https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/
Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 13 October, 2023: cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7809; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0169; response rate (RR)*** = 0.1022.
* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.
** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.
** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.
In October 1993 the confrontation between Yeltsin and the Supreme Soviet headed by Khasbulatov ended in mass riots in Moscow, shelling the White House, dissolution of the parliament and a massive expansion of the presidential power. How well are you aware of those events? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total answers) | |||
| 2013* | 2018 | 2023 |
I am well aware | 34 | 35 | 32 |
I heard something but I don’t know any details / don’t remember | 46 | 55 | 56 |
This is the first time I hear about it | 16 | 9 | 10 |
Don’t know | 4 | 1 | 2 |
* Household face-to-face interviews were conducted (“Express” project); stratified multistage sample with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters; representative of the Russian population aged 18 and older according to the type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents
In October 1993 the confrontation between Yeltsin and the Supreme Soviet headed by Khasbulatov ended in mass riots in Moscow, shelling the White House, dissolution of the parliament and a massive expansion of the presidential power. How well are you aware of those events? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total answers) | ||||||||
2023 | Men | Women | Ages 18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–59 | 60 + | |
I am well aware | 32 | 40 | 26 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 45 | 43 |
I heard something but I don’t know any details / don’t remember | 56 | 51 | 61 | 57 | 61 | 64 | 51 | 53 |
This is the first time I hear about it | 10 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
Don’t know | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
In your opinion, what caused those events? (close-ended question, one answer, % of those who are aware or heard about those events) | |||
| 2013* | 2018 | 2023 |
Split within the ruling establishment, desire to keep power by any means | 38 | 34 | 47 |
Split in views between the president and the parliament regarding the reforms, economic development | 22 | 21 | 15 |
Struggle between the supporters of the democratic values and the remnants of the Soviet system | 19 | 16 | 13 |
It was a combination of circumstances, there were no reasons for that | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Other | 1 | 3 | 8 |
Don’t know | 15 | 19 | 15 |
* Household face-to-face interviews were conducted (“Express” project); stratified multistage sample with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters; representative of the Russian population aged 18 and older according to the type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents
This year marks thirty years since the October 1993 events. Do you remember which party you supported? (close-ended question, one answer, % of those who are aware or heard about those events) | |||
| 2013* | 2018 | 2023 |
Those who supported Boris Yeltsin | 26 | 24 | 18 |
Those who supported the parliament, Khasbulatov, Rutskoy | 16 | 12 | 14 |
Those who haven’t figured out the situation | 38 | 32 | 36 |
Don’t know / I was too small / I was not born yet | 20 | 32 | 32 |
* Household face-to-face interviews were conducted (“Express” project); stratified multistage sample with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters; representative of the Russian population aged 18 and older according to the type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents
Was it justified to use the armed force during the riots on 3-4 October 1993 in Moscow to gain control over the situation? (close-ended question, one answer, % of those who are aware or heard about those events) | |||
| 2013* | 2018 | 2023 |
Likely justified | 17 | 26 | 25 |
Likely unjustified | 69 | 63 | 53 |
Don’t know | 14 | 11 | 22 |
* Household face-to-face interviews were conducted (“Express” project); stratified multistage sample with quotas based on socio-demographic parameters; representative of the Russian population aged 18 and older according to the type of settlement, gender, age, education and federal district. Sample size: 1,600 respondents