As tensions in Belarus keep rising Russians remain reluctant to push for integration within the Russia-Belarus Union State.
MOSCOW, August 09, 2020 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a study devoted to Russian-Belarusian relations.
Russians consider the state of the bilateral relationships to be positive or neutral. Twenty-three percent of respondents call them “friendly”; 20%, “good and good-neighborly” (+7 p.p. since August); 20%, “normal, calm”. The share of those who think that the bilateral relationships are chilly has decreased (16%, −6 p.p.). Only every tenth points to tensions (11%) or hostility (1%); almost the same number of Russians fail to assess the current state of the Russian-Belarusian relationships (9%).
As in January 2019, half of Russians believe that the bilateral relationships remain the same (49%). A downward trend is mentioned by 32% of Russians (+10 p.p. since January 2019), whereas 8% see improvements (−6 p.p.).
More than half of Russians are aware of the creation of the Russia-Belarus Union State (a 8-point increase since early last year); remarkably, every seven respondent says he/she is well informed (16%). Forty-three percent of respondents heard about the union state for the first time during the survey; they are mainly young Russians aged 18-24 (58%) and 25-34 (54%).
Almost half of Russians believe that the Union State as a unification of two countries is not needed; what is important is to maintain good-neighborly relationships with Belarus as another state (43%, −5 p.p. since January 2019). Every fifth says that the two states should be unified on an equal footing (22%) or that Belarus should be incorporated into Russia as one or several subjects of the Russian Federation (17%).
Russian VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on August 20, 2020. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,600 Russians aged 18 and older. A stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of Russian landline and mobile phone number was used. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
How would you generally assess the current state of the Russian-Belarusian relationships? (closed-ended question, one answer % of total respondents) | |||||
| January 2019 | December 2019 | July 2020 | August 2020 | August 2020 |
Normal, calm | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 20 |
Chilly | 15 | 13 | 19 | 22 | 16 |
Friendly | 22 | 24 | 15 | 26 | 23 |
Good, good-neighborly | 15 | 22 | 17 | 13 | 20 |
Tense | 9 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
Hostile | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Don’t know | 8 | 7 | 16 | 5 | 9 |
In your opinion, in what direction have the Russian-Belarusian relationships been evolving over the recent year? (closed-ended question, one answer % of total respondents) | ||
| January 2019 | August 2020 |
Relationships have been improving | 14 | 8 |
Relationships have been deteriorating | 22 | 32 |
Relationships remain the same | 51 | 49 |
Don’t know | 13 | 11 |
Do you know/have you heard/do you hear for the first time about the creation of a Union State between Russia and Belarus? (closed-ended question, one answer % of total respondents) | ||
| January 2019 | August 2020 |
I am well aware | 10 | 16 |
I heard something but I do not know any details | 39 | 41 |
This is the first time I hear about that | 51 | 43 |
What kind of relationships would you like the Russian-Belarusian relationships to be? (closed-ended question, one answer % of total respondents) | ||
| January 2019 | August 2020 |
Unification of the two states into a single state on an equal footing | 18 | 22 |
Incorporation of Belarus into Russia as a subject or several subjects of the Russian Federation | 17 | 17 |
Unification is not needed; what is needed is good-neighborly relationships with Belarus as another state | 48 | 43 |
Russia’s Incorporation into Belarus as one or several subjects of Belarus | 2 | 1 |
No answer | 9 | 12 |
Don’t know | 6 | 5 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory.