Russians are half watching the situation in Belarus. They believe that Lukashenko’ support levels have slightly decreased, but his victory over the protesters is not to be disputed.
MOSCOW, August 13, 2020 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey devoted to the attitudes of Russians towards the results of the presidential elections and the developments unfolding in Belarus.
Currently, 71% of Russians are keeping track of what is happening in Belarus; every fifth is following the situation very closely (18%). Those who show more interest are men (78%) and older generation (87% of Russians aged 60+).
The developments are often referred to as “elections of the Belarusian president” in general (11%). Respondents also mention unrest, rallies, and protests (11%). Every tenth respondent points to dissatisfaction of the Belarusian people with the government (10%) or the results of the elections (7%). Six percent of Russians regard the situation as “chaos” or Lukashenko’s attempts to hold on to power by any means, even through dictatorship.
Every fifth Russian believes that the results of the Belarusian presidential elections are completely trustworthy (22%); they are mainly supporters of United Russia (36%) and KPRF (28%), as well as persons aged 60 and older (33%). Twenty-nine percent of Russians point out possible fraud at local levels not affecting the general results. Almost the same share of respondents (27%) believe that the results of the elections cannot be trusted; this stance is widely shared by supporters of non-parliamentary parties (44%) and young Russians aged 18-24 (47%) and 25-34 (40%).
According to respondents, the most probable scenario is that the protests will be suppressed, and Lukashenko will keep his grip on power (59%); those who think so are mainly male respondents (64%), and Russians aged 45-59 (63%) and 60 and over (66%). One in ten Russians think that there will be dual power after the elections (12%); 6%, that Lukashenko will lose his power. Almost a quarter of respondents failed to assess the protests’ outcome (23%).
A vast majority of Russians believe that what is happening in Belarus is important to Russia (89%). Those who say it is extremely important are Russians aged 60 and older (60%). More than half of Russians consider that it would meet Russian interests if Lukashenko stayed in power (64%). According to 12% of Russians, it would be better for Russia if the opposition came to power in a country friendly to Russia; a quarter of Russians failed to provide an answer (24%).
Over a month the share of Russians who consider the Russia-Belarus relations to be friendly has increased by 9 p.p. (26%). Every fourth views the bilateral relations as “calm” (25%); almost the same number of Russians consider them “chilly” (22%). Eighteen percent of Russians think the relations are “friendly” (−4 p.p. since July); 8% call them “tense”; 1%, “hostile”.
Attitudes towards Alexander Lukashenko are favorable (47%; a 5-point decrease since July); 35% of Russians are indifferent; 12% have negative perceptions.
Russian VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on August 11, 2020. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,600 Russians aged 18 and older. A stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of Russian landline and mobile phone number was used. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Are you interested in what is currently happening in Belarus? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||||
| Total respondents | Men | Women | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | 60 + |
I regularly keep track of events in Belarus; I follow very closely the events in Belarus | 18 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 33 |
Occasionally; I do not follow the situation on a regular basis | 54 | 54 | 53 | 46 | 45 | 54 | 62 | 54 |
I am not interested at all in what is happening in Belarus | 28 | 22 | 32 | 41 | 45 | 33 | 23 | 12 |
Don ‘t know | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Can you describe in two or three words what is currently happening in Belarus?(open-ended question, up to 3 answers, % of respondents) | |
| Total respondents |
Belarusian presidential elections (in general, no details) | 11 |
Mass rallies / unrest / demonstrations / strikes | 11 |
People are not satisfied with the current authorities in power / a revolt against Lukashenko and his power | 10 |
People are dissatisfied with the results of elections/protests against unfair elections | 7 |
Mess / mayhem / outrage | 6 |
Lukashenko does his best to keep grip on power by any means/ dictatorship | 6 |
An attempt to organize a "maidan" similar to Ukraine Western influence / another “maidan” | 5 |
Western influence / a provocation by other countries | 4 |
A coup d'etat attempt | 4 |
Lukashenko won the election again / Lukashenko's elections | 4 |
Ballot-rigging /unfair elections / fraud | 3 |
Arrest of Russian citizens / meritless detention of Russian citizens | 3 |
Destabilization of the situation in the country / unstable situation | 3 |
A domestic provocation/domestic political forces | 2 |
Lawlessness of security agencies | 2 |
An attempt of revolution / another color revolution | 2 |
Low level of livings standards / the authorities do not listen to people | 2 |
Tense relations with Russia / policies against Russia | 2 |
Everything is fine / everything is Ok | 2 |
Other | 3 |
Don’t know | 31 |
In your opinion, to what extent can the results of the recent presidential elections in Belarus be trusted? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||||||
| Total respondents | Supporters of A Just Russia United Russia | Supporters of LDPR | Supporters of KPRF | Supporters of United Russia | Supporters of non-parliamentary parties | Those who would not take part in the voting |
I think that the results of the elections are trustworthy and meet the will of the voters | 22 | 19 | 17 | 28 | 36 | 12 | 10 |
There might have been some election fraud locally but it has not impacted the final results | 29 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 26 | 24 |
The results of the elections in Belarus cannot be trusted | 27 | 31 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 44 | 39 |
Don’t know | 22 | 20 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 18 | 27 |
In your opinion, to what extent can the results of the recent presidential elections in Belarus be trusted? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||
| Total respondents | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | 60 + |
The results of the elections are trustworthy and meet the will of the voters | 22 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 21 | 33 |
There might have been some election fraud locally but it has not impacted the final results | 29 | 26 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 36 |
The results of the elections in Belarus cannot be trusted | 27 | 47 | 40 | 32 | 21 | 13 |
Don’t know | 22 | 24 | 27 | 25 | 21 | 18 |
In your opinion, how will the developments be unfolding in Belarus? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||||
| Total respondents | Men | Women | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | 60 + |
Protests will be suppressed. Lukashenko will remain in power | 59 | 64 | 56 | 40 | 53 | 60 | 63 | 66 |
Protests will intensify. Lukashenko will lose his power | 6 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Lukashenko will not surrender, at the same time he will not be able to suppress the protests; there will be dual power | 12 | 11 | 12 | 25 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 9 |
Don’t know | 23 | 17 | 27 | 17 | 21 | 22 | 26 | 24 |
In your opinion, which of the following is more likely to meet Russia’s interests –Lukashenko in power or the opposition seizing power in Belarus? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |
| Total respondents |
Lukashenko in power | 64 |
Belarusian opposition in power | 12 |
Don’t know | 24 |
Generally speaking, how important is what is currently happening in Belarus to Russia? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||||||
| Total respondents | Men | Women | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | 60 + |
Definitely important | 50 | 57 | 44 | 36 | 40 | 48 | 53 | 60 |
Likely important | 39 | 33 | 43 | 55 | 42 | 37 | 39 | 32 |
Likely not important | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
Definitely not important | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Don’t know | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
How would you assess the current Russia-Belarus relations? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||||
| January 2019 | December 2019 | July 2020 | August 2020 |
Normal, calm | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 |
Chilly | 15 | 13 | 19 | 22 |
Friendly | 22 | 24 | 15 | 26 |
Good, good-neighborly | 15 | 22 | 17 | 13 |
Tense | 9 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
Hostile | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Don’t know | 8 | 7 | 16 | 5 |
What is your attitude to Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenko? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |||
| February 2020 | July 2020 | August 2020 |
Positive | 50 | 52 | 47 |
Negative | 7 | 9 | 12 |
Indifferent | 38 | 35 | 35 |
Don’t know | 5 | 4 | 6 |