In Russian opinion, Armenian transition is more likely to resemble the velvet revolutions of the XX century than the orange revolutions of the 2000s. But the country’s future is truly indistinct.
MOSCOW, May 10, 2018. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data of a survey devoted to the political situation in Armenia.
More than half of Russians (59%) are interested in the situation in Armenia, however only 9% keep a sharp eye on it; the remainder (50%) do it occasionally. Most of Russians use the term ‘velvet revolution’ to describe the events (28% of those who are informed).
Whether the current developments will have any impact on Russia-Armenia relationships, and what kind of impact, is an ambiguous question: according to 28% of respondents who follow the situation the relationships will get worse; on the contrary, 20% say they will improve; 27% think no changes in bilateral relations will happen.
More than three-quarters of Russians who follow the situation in Armenia (78%) consider that developments similar to what is happening in Armenia cannot take place in Russia today; only 15% say something might happen (among the 18-24-year-olds this share is higher than the average sample meaning (30%)).
The VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on May 7-8, 2018. The survey involved 2,000 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia . The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.2%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Are you personally interested to know more about what is happening in Armenia today, or not? ( closed-ended question , one answer , % of all respondents) | ||||||
| Total respondents | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | Aged 60 and over |
I follow the situation in Armenia regularly and attentively | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
Occasionally, not regularly | 50 | 40 | 36 | 48 | 57 | 59 |
Not interested at all | 40 | 56 | 60 | 49 | 33 | 20 |
Don’t know | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Can you describe in two or three words what is currently happening in Armenia? (open-ended question, not more than 3 answers, % of those who are interested in the developments in Armenia) | |
| % respondents |
Velvet revolution | 28 |
Civil unrest, protest actions related to Sargsyan election | 14 |
New presidential election will take place | 10 |
Fight for power, for national resources | 8 |
Civil war, revolution | 8 |
The same situation as in Ukraine | 6 |
Chaos, lawlessness, outrage | 5 |
US and Western provocations | 4 |
People fighting to improve their living conditions | 2 |
Anarchy, lack of governance | 1 |
Changes in Armenian foreign policy | 1 |
Other | 3 |
Don’t know | 30 |
In your opinion, how will the developments in Armenia affect Russia-Armenia relationships, or will there be no effect? If yes, will those changes be positive or negative? ( closed-ended question , one answer , % of those who are interested in the developments in Armenia) | ||||
| % respondents | Those who use the Internet almost every day | Those who use the Internet several times per week/per month | Those who use the Internet occasionally or never use it |
No changes | 27 | 27 | 23 | 30 |
Improvements in relationships | 20 | 16 | 22 | 30 |
Deterioration in relationships | 28 | 31 | 31 | 18 |
Don’t know | 25 | 26 | 24 | 22 |
In your opinion, can anything similar to what is happening in Armenia take place in Russia today? ( closed-ended question , one answer , % of those who are interested in the developments in Armenia) | ||||||
| % respondents | Aged 18-24 | Aged 25-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 45-59 | Aged 60 and over |
Likely possible | 15 | 30 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 13 |
Unlikely possible | 78 | 59 | 78 | 80 | 77 | 81 |
Don’t know | 7 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!