MOSCOW, 19 March 2024.  Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey about confidence in the latest presidential election results.

The presidential election held March 15 through 17 was the key political event in Russia this year. Millions of Russians came to the polling stations or voted remotely. By the time the survey was conducted, a majority of Russians had been aware of the election results (85%), including 72% who trusted the election results, with 54% of Russians fully trusted the results. Thirteen percent of respondents did not trust the results of the elections; another 14% did not know how many votes the candidates won.

This year a record high number of Russians say the election results are fair and meet the will of the voters – 65% (53% in2004; 53% in 2008; 44% in 2012; 60% in 2018). A further 18% choose the answer option “There was some election fraud locally but it did not have any considerable impact on the election results nationwide” (-10 p.p. compared to 2018); about every tenth Russian tends to distrust the election outcomes (12%).

The presidential election results evoke primarily positive emotions in Russians: hope (42% of those who are aware of the election results), joy (34%), enthusiasm (21%), satisfaction (2%). Every fifth respondent (20%) reports indifference or absence of specific feelings related to the election outcome. Negative feelings are not common: disappointment (7%), irritation and skepsis (6%, each).  

VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was conducted 18 March, 2024. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18+ took part in the survey. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. Data were weighted for social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Key effectiveness indicators, survey of March 18, 2024:  cooperation rate (CR)* = 0,8187; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0,0167 response rate (RR)*** = 0,1123.

Calculations are based on the corporate standard: https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/

* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.

** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.

** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.