MOSCOW, 7 December 2023. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey devoted to the upcoming Russian presidential election and is commissioned by the Social Research Expert Institute (EISI).
We know and participate!
More than half of Russians have a correct idea of the presidential election dates (61%): 36% specified the date/month/year and 25% specified the year correctly.
Seventy-eight percent of respondents say they are going to take part in the vote, including 61% who are confident (“I will definitely come to vote”). A further 13% say they will decide closer to the date; 8% are not going to cast their vote.
Two-thirds of Russians could give an assessment of the election process (66%): every second is confident that the election will go in a peaceful manner (54%); every eighth says it will go in a frantic way (12%). Every third failed to provide an answer (34%).
Important event for Russia
A vast majority of Russians believe that the Russian presential election will not only be an important event for Russia (89%), but also for themselves personally (84%). Of electorally active respondents – those who are willing to take part in the upcoming vote (the share of this group is 78%), the shares are 94% and 92%, respectively.
VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide telephone survey was commissioned by Social Research Expert Institute (EISI) and conducted November 30, 2023. A total of 1,600 Russians aged 18+ were surveyed. Survey method: telephone interviews, stratified random sample based on a complete list of mobile phone numbers in use in Russia. The data were weighted for socio-demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Key effectiveness indicators, survey of 30 November, 2023: cooperation rate (CR)* = 0.7793; minimum response rate (MRR)** = 0.0164; response rate (RR)*** = 0.0714. calculations are based on corporate standards: https://profi.wciom.ru/principy_standarty/korporativnyj-standart-po-izmereniyu-rezultativnosti-oprosov-sputnik-vciom/
* CR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews and b) non-interviews with eligible respondents.
** MRR: the number of complete interviews divided by the sum of: а) complete interviews, b) interrupted interviews after successful screening and c) all the respondents where it is unknown whether they meet the selected criteria or not.
** RR is calculated in the same way as MRR, with the only difference that the number of respondents with unknown eligibility decreases proportional to the percentage of eligible cases in the total number of respondents with identified eligibility or non-eligibility.
Do you know when the next Russian presidential election will take place? If “yes”, specify month and year (open-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |
| Total respondents |
Those who specified the date correctly (date, month and year, season) | 36 |
Those who specified correctly (year) | 25 |
Those who specified wrongly | 6 |
No idea /I hear for the first time / no answer / Don’t know | 33 |
The next Russian presidential election will be held in March 2024. Are you going to cast your vote, or not? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |
| Total respondents |
Definitely yes | 61 |
Likely yes | 17 |
Likely not | 2 |
Definitely not | 6 |
Not decided yet; I’ll decide closer to the date | 13 |
Don’t know | 1 |
In your opinion, will the next Russian presidential election go in a peaceful or in a frantic way? Or is it hard for you to assess the upcoming election? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |
| Total respondents |
Likely peacefully | 54 |
Likely in a frantic way | 12 |
It is hard to say right now | 31 |
Don’t know | 3 |
Speaking about the country in general, is the 2024 Russian presidential election an important or unimportant event for the country? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||
| Total respondents | Those who confirm they will appear at polling stations for the Russian presidential election in March 2024 (share of group — 78%) |
Likely important | 89 | 94 |
Likely important | 7 | 4 |
Don’t know | 4 | 2 |
Is the 2024 Russian presidential election an important or unimportant event for you personally? (close-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | ||
| Total respondents | Those who confirm they will appear at polling stations for the Russian presidential election in March 2024 (share of group — 78%) |
Likely important | 84 | 92 |
Likely important | 13 | 7 |
Don’t know | 3 | 1 |