Press release №1415
15.02.2012
RALLY ON BOLOTNAYA SQUARE ON FEBRUARY, 4: RESULTS OF OPINION POLL

IN BRIEF

  • The participants of the demonstration on February 4th are ready to support M.Prokhorov in 2012 presidential elections (27%)
  • 57% say the dialogue between the authorities and opposition is needed today
  • The most respectful person among the demonstrators is regarded to be G.Yavlinsky
  • he is also the one who could lead the dialogue

The demonstrators say there is a need for a dialogue between the power and the opposition. This dialogue should be led by Grigory Yavlinsky. Those who gathered on Bolonaya square on February 4th will cast their vote for M.Prokhorov on March 4th.

MOSCOW, February 15, 2011. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of the poll conducted on Bolotnaya square on February 4th. Demonstrator`s portrait

Those who gathered on Bolotnaya square on February 4h were generally men (71%), younger than 45 years old (71%), with high level of education (56%), with average (56%) and high financial income (27%). Eighteen percent of respondents were office workers, 12% - public servants, 11% - workers, 10% - information sector employees. Besides, 9% of participants were retired persons, 8% - students. Most of the participants are active Internet users (60% use the Internet every day).

The overwhelming majority of those who took part in the rally of February 4th were supporters of democratic and liberal values:  23% said they were democrats, 18% - liberals, 3% - liberal-democrats. The least numerous were supporters of communism (7%), social-democrats (4%), supporters of socialism (2%) and other ideologies.

Most of those who came to Bolotnaya square on February 4th live in Moscow (81%). Nineteen percent of participants specially came to Moscow to participate in the rally. 

Participation in the rally

Two-thirds of participants took part in the rally with their friends and relatives (69%); at the same time, 23% said they came alone.

Internet was the main source of information about the rally (70%).  Rarer respondents mentioned friends and relatives (38%) and television (35%).   The share of those who got the information from social networking sites is 22%. Blogs were less popular as a source of information (8%).

The key reason why the participants of the rally came to the Bolotnaya square was their disagreement with the results of the parliamentary elections (23%). The shares of those who were protesting against authorities (16%), against Putin (12%), against lies and lawlessness (11%), and who were supporting the opposition (11%) have decreased.

The majority of those who gathered on Bolotnaya square decided to take part in the rally as soon as they knew about it  (46%). Other 32% made their decision within a week before the rally; only 5% decided to go to the square on the day of the rally.

Most of those who took part in the rally on Bolotnaya square on February 4th were on the square on December 10th (58%) and took part in the rally on Sakharov avenue on December 24th (72%); however the share of those who previously took part in the rally at Chistye Prudy was only 36%.

Slogans and key figures

Most of participants liked the way the rally was organized (63%). The best speaker was recognized to be G.Yavlinsky (30%), followed by L.Parfenov on the second place (18%). Only 9% of respondents liked the other speeches. The speeches of A.Belov (5%) and K.Sobchak (4%) were least appreciated.

The most popular rally`s slogan was “Down with Putin, Russia without Putin” (47%), followed by “For fair and just elections” on the second position (16%).

Many respondents said the person they respected most was G.Yavlinsky (29%). Participants were also in favor of А.Navalny (18%), M.Prokhorov (12%), B.Nemtsov (11%) among leaders of the opposition.

Participants` electoral preferences

The overwhelming majority of those who came to Bolotnaya square on February 4th took part in 2011 parliamentary elections (82%). Most of them cast their vote for Yabloko party (37%). The shares of those who supported other parties were fewer: LDPR and CPRF  - 18% per each, A Just Russia – 8%, Right Cause – 5%, Patriots of Russia – 3%, United Russia – 3%.

Among candidates for presidency M.Prokhorov is supported by most of respondents - 27%. He is followed by G.Zyuganov (15%) on the second place and V.Zhirinovsky on the third place, then followed by S.Mironov (11%). Three percent of respondents would cast their vote for V.Putin.

About parliamentary and presidential elections

Fifty-three percent of those who gathered on Bolotnaya square are confident that the majority of the population does not support V.Putin. Nevertheless, 16% oppose them; 23% think that Russian population is indifferent towards V.Putin.

Most of respondents report violations during parliamentary elections (89%): 38% have read about it in mass media and Internet, 35% have known about it from friends and relatives, and 18% have personally encountered such situations.  

According to participants of the action, V.Putin is the one who will win the presidential elections (44%). At the same time, 10% believe that the future president might be G.Zyuganov, 8% - M.Prokhorov, 5% - V.Zhirinovsky, 3% - S.Mironov.

The rally`s participants are divided in their opinion whether the elections will be fair:  50% are confident that the results will be garbled; 47% think there will be small violations which will not have any impact on the final results.

Relations between power and opposition

According to the majority of rally`s participants, today there is a need for a dialogue between the power and the opposition (57%). The number of those who think that the opposition should not enter into the negotiations with the power is considerably smaller (29%).

The persons who could lead the dialogue are G.Yavlinsky (22%), V.Zhirinovsky, A.Navalny (16% for each), M.Prokhorov (14%). Respondents also mentioned G. Zyuganov  and L. Parfenov (10% for each).  

Plans of demonstrators

The majority of rally`s participants (84%) report they will take part in such actions in the future; 53% will definitely do that.  

In case the rally supports V.Putin, 55% of participants would not participate in it. Thirty-eight percent say that they would join such a rally to express their protest against Putin`s policy; on the contrary, 3% would support V.Putin.

If Putin wins the presidential elections, 65% of participants will attend protest actions against results of elections. Twelve percent report they will join organizations or parties that oppose Putin`s policy; 5% will search any possibility to emigrate.

The initiative Russian opinion was conducted on February 4, 2012 at the exit from the rally on Bolotnaya square. 800 respondents were interviewed.

Do you live and work in Moscow or did you come specially to participate in the demonstration?  (close-ended question, one answer)  
I live and work in Moscow 81
No, I came here to participate in the demonstration 19
From what sources did out know about this demonstration? (close-ended question, any number of answers)
Internet (news) 70
From friends/ relatives 38
Television/ radio/ newspapers/ magazines 35
Social network sites (Vkontakte, Facebook)   22
Blogs (livejournal, Blogpost  et cet.) 8
Other 4
Hard to tell 2
Are you here alone or with friends/relatives? (close-ended question, one answer)
Alone 23
With friends/relatives 69
Hard to tell 8
Why do you participate in today`s demonstrations?  (open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers scored not less than 2% ) 
Unfair elections, disagreement with the results 23
Protest against authorities, political system, political situation in the country 16
Against Putin 12
For opposition 11
Against lies,  theft and corruption, lawlessness 11
Interest, curiosity 8
Active civil position, duty 5
I came with friends 4
No democracy 4
Eager for  a better life, changes 4
Other 2
Hard to tell 3
When did you decide to take part in demonstration? (close-ended question, one answer)
Several weeks ago, as soon as  I knew that the demonstration would take place 46
During the last week 32
Today 5
Hard to tell 17
Have you ever taken part in demonstration like that? (close-ended question, one answer)
Protest at Chistye Prudy, December 6 Rally on Bolotnaya square, December 10 Rally on Sakharov avenue, December 24
Yes, I have 36 58 72
No, I have not 63 42 28
I do not remember/ I will not tell you 1 Less than 1 Less than 1
Hard to tell Less than 1 Less than 1 Less than 1
If similar rallies take place in the near future, will you take part? (close-ended question, one answer)    
Definitely, yes 53
Rather yes 31
Rather no 2
No 2
Depending on the situation 12
Hard to tell Less than 1
Was there anything in the rally that you did not like or you were disappointed with? If yes, what exactly? (open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers scored not less than 2% )  
I liked everything 63
Bad weather, the cold 5
Poor speeches; speeches  were not enough 4
Hard to see and hear the speakers 3
No place to get warm; no toilets 2
Lots of barriers that make it hard to get through 2
Composition of people  (communists, nationalists) 2
Hard to tell 14
Did you take part in parliamentary elections that took place on December 4th, 2011?  (close-ended question, one answer)
Yes 82
No 17
Hard to tell 1
If it is not a secret, which party did you vote on December 4th, 2011? (close-ended question, one answer, those who participated in elections)  
Yabloko 37
LDPR (liberal-democratic party of Russia) 18
CPRF (Communist party of Russian Federation) 18
A Just Russia 8
Right Cause 5
United Russia 3
Patriots of Russia 3
I will not  tell you 5
I spoiled the ballot 3
Hard to tell 1
 
There has been a lot of discussion about the violations during the elections. Have you encountered such violations? If yes, how did you know about them? (close-ended question, one answer)
I  have read/seen information about violations in mass media, including Internet 38
My friends and relatives told me about violations 35
I personally encountered violations during the elections 17
I heard about it at the rally 6
I do not know/ there were not any violations 2
Hard to tell 2
Which speakers did you like most? (open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 2%)
Yavlinsky 30
Parfenov 18
Navalny 9
Shevchuk 9
Ryzhikov 8
Zhirinovsky 8
Nemtsov 5
Ulitskaya 5
Gudkov 5
Troitsky 4
Bykov 4
Udaltsov 4
Akunin 3
Karpov 2
Chicherina 2
Romanova 2
Prokhorov 2
Yashin 2
None 11
Hard to tell 7

Were there any speakers that you did not like? (open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)
Belov 5
Sobchak 4
Yavlinsky 3
Ulitskaya 2
Ampilov 2
Navalny 1
Gudkov 1
Chicherina 1
Yasina 1
Ryzhikov 1
Udaltsov 1
Shevchuk (DDT) 1
Nemtsov 1
Parfenov 1
Yashin 1
None 57
Hard to tell 22
Which of the slogans stated during the rally did you most agree? (open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)  
Down with Putin, Russia without Putin 47
For free, fair elections 16
Change of power, political system 5
Down with crooks and thieves, liars and corruptionists    4
Free political prisoners 2
Power to people 2
Russia will be free 2
Power to millions 2
Down with Churov 1
Peoples’ will, law and freedom 1
Give us our rights, decent life 1
More parties for the elections, registration of all the parties 1
For fair Russia 1
Yavlinsky`s presidency 1
Enough feeding foreign countries 1
Third term is mortal 1
 Love your home? Go with us! 1
I am a teacher, I am here 1
Russia for Russians 1
Let`s pass through to 2d round 1
We got dressed warmer 1
The state, it is me! 1
We are not banderbloggers, neither slaves, not donkeys et cet. 1
For the justice 1
United, we are invincible 1
People and army are united 1
We are not opposition, we are employers 1
Other 4
Hard to tell 8
Is there any leader of the opposition that you like and respect? (open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)  
Yavlinsky 29
Navalny 18
Prokhorov 12
Nemtsov 11
Zhirinovsky 9
Ryzhkov 7
Akunin 6
Parfenov 6
Zyuganov 4
Mironov 3
Shevchuk 3
Gudkov 2
Udaltsov 2
Bykov 2
Karpov 1
Kudrin 1
Chirikova 1
Yashin 1
Kasparov 1
Ulitskaya 1
Chubais 1
None of the opposition 2
Nobody 9
Hard to tell 8
On March 4th 2012, the presidential elections will take place in Russia. Which candidate will you support? (close-ended question, one answer)
Mikhail Prokhorov 27
Gennady Zyuganov 15
Vladimir Zhirinovsky 13
Sergey Mironov 11
Vladimir Putin 3
I will spoil the ballot 13
I will not take part in the voting 7
Hard to tell/ not decided yet 12
In your opinion, who will win the presidential elections 2012?  (close-ended question, one answer)
Vladimir Putin 44
Gennady Zyuganov 10
Mikhail Prokhorov 8
Vladimir Zhirinovsky 5
Sergey Mironov 3
Hard to tell 30
 
In your opinion, does the majority of Russians support Vladimir Putin today or not? (close-ended question, one answer)
The majority supports V.Putin 16
The majority does  not support Putin 59
The majority is indifferent 23
Hard to tell 3
Which of the statement about the future presidential elections do you most agree? (close-ended question, one answer)
Presidential elections will be absolutely fair 1
There will be some small violations during the elections, however that will not have any impact on the final results 47
Most of results  will be garbled 50
Hard to tell 2
There are a number of opinions about the dialogue between the power and the opposition. Which of them do you most agree? (close-ended question, one answer)
Immediate dialogue between power and opposition is needed today 57
There should not be any dialogue between power and opposition 29
Hard to tell 14

In your opinion, which political or public figure could lead the dialogue on behalf of opposition?  (open-ended question, any number of answers, %of those who think that the dialogue is necessary. Shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)  
Yavlinsky 22
Zhirinovsky 16
Navalny 16
Prokhorov 14
Parfenov 10
Zyuganov 10
Akunin 9
Ryzhkov 8
Nemtsov 7
Bykov 4
Mironov 4
Kasparov 2
Karpov 1
Kasianov 1
Shevchuk 1
Gudkov 1
Kudrin 1
Udaltsov 1
None/I do not know anyone 3
Other 2
Hard to tell 7

What ideology do you support? (open-ended question, any number of answers, shown are answers that scored not less than 1%)
Democracy 23
Liberalism 18
Communism 7
Social-democrat 4
Right 4
Democracy-liberalism 3
Socialism 2
Anarchism 1
Left 1
Capitalism 1
SR 1
Monarchism 1
Parliamentary republic 1
None 20
Other 3
Hard to tell 11

Gender
Male 71
Female 29

Age
18-24 20
25-34 28
35-44 23
45-59 20
60 and above 10

Education  
Elementary, incomplete secondary 3
Secondary,  technical college 15
Secondary special 26
Higher, incomplete higher 56

Employment  
Unemployed 24
Industrial sector 19
State and municipal service 18
Services sector 17
Budget sector 16
Hard to tell 5

Profession, job position  
Office worker 18
Civil servant, administrative worker 12
Worker 11
Engineering and technical workers 10
Retired person, unemployed 9
Student 8
Budget worker (doctor, lecturer, social worker,  teacher) 7
Businessmen, entrepreneurs 5
Artistic professions (artist, musician, PR specialist, journalist) 4
Housekeeping 3
Serviceman, bodies of interior affairs, including police  and federal security service 2
Registered unemployed 1
Other group 3
Hard to tell 4

Financial self-assessment  
Very good 1
Good 26
Average 59
Bad 11
Very bad 2
Hard to tell 1

 

Do you use the Internet? If yes, how often? (close-ended question, one answer)
Almost every day 60
Several times per week 22
Several times per month 6
From time to time, but not less than once per year 2
I do not use it 7
Hard to tell 3

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!

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