Press release №1398
19.10.2011
STATE DUMA ELECTIONS FORECAST: A MONTH AND A HALF BEFORE THE VOTING

IN BRIEF

  • According to VCIOM`s forecast, the voter turnout will be 56%
  • State Duma of the 6th convocation will include four parties: United Russia, CORF, LDPR, Fair Russia

If State Duma elections took place tomorrow, four parties would gain seats; 53.8% would choose United Russia party if the voter turnout were 56%.

MOSCOW, October 19, 2011. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the forecast of State Duma election results. The VCIOM`s forecasting technique is based upon the results of Russian opinion polls and expert assessment. The final forecast involves voter turnout prediction and voting prediction. The results are adjusted with expert opinions.

According to VCIOM`s forecast, the share of those who are planning to take part in elections is 75%. Twenty-one percent of respondents are not planning to take part in the voting.

Electoral ratings of the parties. The electoral rating of United Russia party is 45%; CPRF - 13%; LDPR - 10%; Fair Russia party - 5%. The share of those who support non-parliament parties (Yabloko, Pravoe Delo, and Patriots of Russia) does not exceed 1%.

According to Russians, 7% vote threshold will be, apparently, reached by United Russia party (79%), CPRF (60%) and LDPR (51%). Least of Russians cite Fair Russia party (31%). Few Russians believe that the vote threshold will be reached by non-parliament parties: only 7% mention Pravoe Delo party; 6% - Yabloko; 4% - Patriots of Russia party.  

The forecast adjusted with expert and public opinions shows that voter turnout will be 56%; four parties will be represented in State Duma: United Russia - 53.8% votes, CPRF – 17.1% votes, LDPR – 11.3% votes, Fair Russia – 7.9% votes. Current non-parliament parties will not enter the parliament.

The distribution of votes (with redistribution of votes of parties that did not reach 7% threshold in favor of the winners) is as follows:  United Russia – 59.7% votes; CPRF– 19.0% votes; LDPR – 12.5% votes; Fair Russia - 8.8% votes.

According to the VCIOM`s forecast, the final composition of the State Duma of the 6th convocation will be as follows: United Russia - 269 seats; CPRF – 85 seats; LDPR – 56 seats: Fair Russia - 40 seats.

VCIOM`s forecast was calculated in October 1-2, 2011 and based on the Russian opinion polls (1600 respondents were interviewed at 138 sampling points in 46 regions of Russia; the margin of error does not exceed 3.4%) and expert poll.

Election results forecast
Voter turnout 56%

Distribution of votes

United Russia

53,8%

CPRF 17,1%
LDPR 11,3%
Fair Russia 7,9%
Pravoe Delo 2,1%
Yabloko 3,3%
Patriots of Russia 2,0%
Invalid ballots 2,5%

 

Forecast of distribution of seats in State Duma 
  State Duma of the 4th convocation State Duma of the 5th convocation 
United Russia 269 315
CPRF 85 57
LDPR 56 40
Fair Russia 40 38

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!

 

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