Russians say that the outgoing year was better personally for them and their family members, however the national-scale dynamics looks less optimistic. Russians have lower expectations for 2019 than a year ago.
MOSCOW, December 26, 2018. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data of a survey devoted to what Russians remember about 2018 and what they expect from 2019, as well as how they are going to celebrate the New Year’s Eve, what they will give as gifts and how much they will spend.
The World Cup was the major event in 2018 (12%). Changes in pension legislation are among major events on a national scale for 24% of Russians. The main scandals were the Kerch strait incident (10%), Ukraine-related events (8%) and the Skripal case (7%).
The Medialogia company study of the Russian media suggests that the list of the most significant world events is headed by the Skripal case (14,725.60). The 2018 World Cup is at the top of the list of Russian events (20,647.66) followed by the Kemerovo shopping mall tragedy (16,116.29) and Putin’s victory in the presidential elections (12,208.61).
Vladimir Putin is named the politician of the year (46%) he is followed by Sergey Lavrov (18%), Sergey Shoygu (9%), Dmitry Medvedev (6%), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (5%), etc.
The list of the most popular athletes is headed by the figure skaters Alina Zagitova (11%) and Evgeniya Medvedeva, football players Artem Dzyuba (8%) and Igor Akinfeev (7%), the fighter Khabib Nurmagomedov (5%).
As to actors, Sergey Bezrukov has been the most famous for several consecutive years (8%); Konstantin Khabensky (5%) is on the second place. Philipp Kirkorov is the top music performer of the year (10%). The hardest question refers to the writer of the year: all informative answers do not exceed 2%: Daria Dontsova (2%), Alexander Pushkin (2%), Zakhar Prilepin (2%); the remainder gained 1% and even less.
The most popular TV show is the Rossiya-1 project “60 minutes” (8%). The best TV series are “The Policeman of Rublyovka” (Politseysky s Rublevki) and “The Major” (5%, each). The best movies in 2018 are “Going Vertical” (Dvizhenie vverkh”) (3%), “The Avengers” (Mstiteli) and “T-34” (2%, each).
2018 emotions and assessments; expectations for 2019
Russians bid goodbye to 2018 being in a good mood: the corresponding index* reached 56 p. Forty-nine percent express joy and expect changes for the better; 27% are calm and confident. At the same time, in 2018 more respondents had negative emotions: an increase in “tiredness” from 8% to 19%, an increase in “disturbance” from 10% to 15%, “sadness” from 4% to 10%, “disappointment” from 3% to 10%.
The assessments of personal outcomes are higher than a year ago: index of personal outcomes** reached 17 p. in 2018 (14 p. in 2017). The outgoing year was “good” and “successful” personally for 57% of respondents; 40% say difficulties prevailed and the year was hard for them. The assessments on a national scale are less positive: the corresponding index** shows a considerable decrease compared to the previous year (from -12 to -27 p.p.). The balance of assessments is still negative: 33% view the year positively, whereas 60% negatively.
Russians do not expect too much from the upcoming year: the index of personal expectations*** has declined from 64 p. in 2017 to 34 p. in 2018. The figure on a national scale has also dropped (from 42 p. to 3 p.). Every fifth respondent (21%) considers that the next year will be successful for them personally; 13% for the country in general.
New Year’s Eve celebration plans, expenditures and gifts
Home remains a customary location to spend the New Year’s Eve (80% will stay at home). A further 6% will pay a visit to friends; 4% will go to dacha. Just 5% of respondents do not have any particular plans for the New Year’s Eve.
Spending on the New Year’s Eve celebration has decreased by 4%: an average amount is 13,755 rub. (vs 14,299 rub. last year). Eighty-seven percent of respondents will spend approximately 5,006 rub. on gifts (5,301 rub. in 2017.); 89% will spend 4,413 rub. on food; 53% are going to spend 4,335 rub. on visits to theatres, restaurants and New Year party for children.
Desires and opportunities concerning the gift ideas do not coincide this year: most of respondents are going to give sweets, spirits and delicacies (25%), whereas 8% would like to get them as presents. Respondents also mention souvenirs and toys (23%, each), perfumery and cosmetics (21%) as other gift ideas. The most desired presents are tour packages (11%), tickets to cinemas, theatres and dinner at a restaurant (10%); thirteen percent are not willing to give any gifts; 27% would refuse to receive presents.
Detailed results are available in PPT file
* Index describes an overall Russian perception of the outgoing year and hopes for the upcoming year. The Index is based on the question: “What feelings do you have bidding a farewell to the outgoing year and welcoming the upcoming year?” The answer “good feeling, a sense of optimism” corresponds to the coefficient “0.9”; the answer “I feel neither emotional upheaval nor negative emotions”– “0.5”; “Rather bad mood, pessimistic expectations” – “0.1”. The Index is measured in points and can vary between 10 and 90. The higher the value of index is, the more optimistic Russians are bidding farewell to the outgoing year and welcoming the upcoming year.
** Indices of personal outcomes and general country’s outcomes are based on the questions “What was the outgoing year like for you personally and your family?” and “What was the outgoing year for Russia in general?” The Index is calculated as the difference of positive and negative assessments. The value of Index may vary between -100 and 100 points. The higher the value of Index is, the more positive respondents are about the outgoing year.
*** Indices of Personal Expectations and Index of National Expectations are based on the questions “What do you and your family expect for the upcoming year?” and “What should Russia expect for the upcoming year?” The Index is calculated as the difference of positive and negative assessments. The value may vary between -100 and 100 points. The higher the value of Index is, the more positive respondents are about the future.
The VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted in December, 2018. The survey involved 1,600 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
The 2003-2016 results are based on household surveys.
The monitoring and analysis of the Russian media was carried out by the Medialogia Company using the Medialogia database involving 48,100 sources (TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, information agencies, online media). The period of study was from January 1st through December 19th, 2018.
|Can you name three most important world events happened in 2018? (open-ended question, not more than three answers, shown are informative answers mentioned by at least 2% of respondents)|
|World Cup in Russia||12|
|Events in Syria||9|
|Kerch Bridge opening||6|
|Pension reform in Russia||5|
|Kerch strait incident||3|
|New sanctions against Russia||3|
|Russian foreign policy||3|
|Presidential elections in Russia||2|
|Severny potok-2 (Nord stream 2) natural gas pipeline||2|
|Can you name three most important events happened in Russia in 2018? (open-ended question, not more than three answers, shown are informative answers mentioned by at least 2% of respondents)|
|Hosting the World Cup||13|
|Kerch bridge opening||8|
|Value-added tax increase||4|
|Price increase for gasoline||4|
|High inflation rate||2|
|Kerch strait incident||2|
|Fall in living standards||2|
|Three major world events in Russian media|
|UK allegations against Russia: blaming Petrov and Boshirov for Sergey and Yulia Skripal’s poisoning, strengthening sanctions against Russia||14,725.60|
|USA, France, UK staged a strike on Syria after the reported use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government in Douma||10,133.11|
|Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kerch strait||9,231.47|
|Three major Russian events in Russian media|
|World Cup in Russia||20,647.66|
|Kemerovo tragedy, Zimnyaya Vishnya fire||16,116.29|
|Victory of Vladimir Putin in presidential elections||12,208.61|
|What feeling do you have bidding farewell to 2018 and welcoming 2019? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)|
|Good feeling, a sense of optimism||33||40||29||34||33||34||34||35||41||41||45||48||39|
|I feel neither emotional upheaval nor negative emotions||49||44||46||49||51||50||54||51||45||43||42||38||38|
|Rather bad mood, pessimistic expectations||16||8||20||11||12||10||10||9||10||14||12||11||21|
|What feelings do you have on New Year’s eve? (closed-ended question, not more than three answers, %)|
|Joy, expectations of changes for the better||35||35||42||43||50||49||49|
|Calmness and confidence||23||27||23||24||25||32||27|
|I do not feel anything special||17||16||13||9||9||18||7|
|What was the outgoing year like for you personally and your family? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)|
|Very bad, difficult||7||13||9||6||5||9||11||7||5||5||6||6||13||13||12||12|
|What was the outgoing year like for Russia in general? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)|
|Very bad, difficult||4||12||5||3||2||7||14||12||5||5||5||9||18||15||11||17|
|What do you and your family expect for the upcoming year? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)|
|I think the upcoming year will be rather good||27||10||12||19||21||12||14||11||11||8||13||11||23||27||27||21|
|I think that the upcoming year will be generally good||47||45||52||51||54||37||47||51||54||51||52||54||43||48||53||45|
|It will be rather difficult||20||34||27||21||15||39||27||24||23||30||28||26||26||18||15||27|
|I think it will be very bad||1||5||3||1||1||4||3||2||3||3||2||3||3||3||1||5|
|What should Russia expect for the upcoming year? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)|
|I think the upcoming year will be rather good||13||6||9||14||18||8||8||8||8||8||8||9||18||24||21||13|
|I think that the upcoming year will be generally good||48||37||49||53||52||30||42||43||46||51||48||44||37||44||48||37|
|It will be rather difficult||29||41||30||22||17||48||35||29||31||30||33||35||34||21||25||40|
|I think it will be very bad||1||4||3||1||1||6||3||4||3||3||3||5||6||4||2||7|
|How are you going to celebrate the New Year’s Eve? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)|
|At dacha (my own, my friends’, my relatives’ dacha)||1||1||1||1||2||1||2||2||2||1||2||2||4||3||4|
|At a restaurant (club, dance party)||2||3||2||2||2||2||2||3||2||2||3||2||2||1||1|
|In the countryside, at a holiday centre, health resort||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||0||1||1||1||1||1|
|I will not celebrate the New Year’s eve||2||2||2||2||2||4||2||2||3||1||3||3||3||4||5|
|And how much money are you going to spend for the New Year celebration? (closed-ended question, one answer per each option based on the answers of those who plan spending)|
|Average spending, rub.|
|Gifts to relatives||1105||1409||1764||1824||2058||2200||2497||2666||2853||3142||4198||4338||5301||5007|
|New Year table||1155||1437||1762||1879||2116||2142||2417||2593||2824||3103||4069||4164||4596||4413|
|Other spending (Christmas tree, travel packages, theatres, restaurants, et cet.)||902||1169||1431||1502||1654||1826||2040||2169||2437||2383||3617||3895||4402||4335|
|Total (total expenditures)||3163||4015||4957||5206||5828||6168||6953||7428||8114||8628||11884||12397||14299||13755|
|An increase compared to the previous year, %|
|Gifts to relatives||27||25||3||12||6||14||7||7||10||34||3||22||-5|
|New Year table||24||22||6||12||1||13||7||9||10||31||2||10||-4|
|Other spending (Christmas tree, travel packages, theatres, restaurants, et cet.)||29||22||4||10||10||12||6||12||-2||52||8||13||-1|
|Total (total expenditures)||26||23||4||11||5||13||7||9||6||38||4||15||-4|
|What are you GOING TO GIVE as a New Year gift to your friends and relatives? (closed-ended question, not more than four answers, %)|
|Candies, spirits, specialties||26||30||29||30||24||28||29||29||28||28||24||26||22||25|
|Souvenirs (pens, notepads, purse, et cet.)||33||36||38||37||30||31||31||35||42||35||28||30||31||23|
|Perfumery, cosmetics, bijouterie||21||23||22||21||20||24||23||23||25||21||15||19||21||21|
|Household appliances (tea-kettle, iron, coffee maker)||4||6||5||5||4||8||7||6||8||5||6||7||9||9|
|Tickets to concert, theatre, a restaurant dinner||2||2||1||2||2||2||2||3||3||3||3||4||4||6|
|Camera, video camera, TV set, sound system)||1||1||1||1||1||1||2||2||2||1||2||2||1||1|
|I will not give anyone anything||15||12||14||16||15||14||10||13||12||11||16||14||13||13|
|What would you like to have as a New Year gift from your friends and relatives? (closed-ended question, not more than four answers, %)|
|Perfumery, cosmetics, bijouterie||9||11||10||10||8||10||5||9||12||10|
|Tickets to concert, theatre, a restaurant dinner||3||3||4||5||3||5||4||6||9||10|
|Candies, spirits, specialties||4||5||9||7||7||10||5||6||7||8|
|Household appliances (tea-kettle, iron, coffee maker)||4||6||5||6||5||4||4||5||6||8|
|Souvenirs (pens, notepads, purse, et cet.)||7||8||9||7||14||13||7||8||14||7|
|Camera, video camera, TV set, sound system||4||5||7||6||6||4||2||3||2||3|
|I do not want to have anything as a gift||17||16||14||17||18||17||23||19||27||27|
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory! Full or partial reproduction of the Medialogia Company materials in other media must contain a reference to the Medialogia Company.