Press release №2124
06.12.2018
ELECTIONS AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF CRIMEA: VIEWS OF THE PAST AND GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE

IN BRIEF

  • outcomes of studies on actual political processes
  • findings: not from fundamental studies but those tailored to diagnose situations and find solutions
  • case studies showing a researcher facing problems with multiple unknowns and finding a brilliant solution
  • methods designed and tested during campaigns

A monograph by VCIOM sociologists devoted to the Russians’ political behavior in the 2016-2018 electoral cycle came out

MOSCOW, December 5, 2018. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents a collective monograph “Elections against the backdrop of Crimea: the electoral cycle of 2016–2018 and political transit prospects in Russia”. The monograph was edited by VCIOM’s General Director Valery Fedorov. 

With the publication of this book VCIOM has fulfilled its mission and duty to the readers expecting a serious “postflight analysis”: how and to what extent the political priorities of Russians have changed, and what transformations may happen in the Russian politics in the near future. To achieve the purpose, the authors had to distance themselves to the full from common discussion and speculations and to provide a substantiated sociological insight into the Russian political behavior in a short, though extremely overwhelmed by events, time period from 2014 to 2018.  Yet there has not been a period in the history of Russia similar to this one; nor is it likely to happen in the near future.

The monograph provides plentiful information from research experts who have been keeping abreast of social change. Analysis of the works or positions of Russian and foreign researchers emerges where the authors explore the ideological field or start a debate focusing on interpretations of the political regime of contemporary Russia and its future.

Certain parts of the monograph, in particular the parts devoted to methods for forecasting elections, represent a guidebook for those who study political science. This is the first home-made publication which covers the forecasting topic so widely and in every detail: it examines success and failure in electoral forecasting worldwide showing that the Russian segment has become a leading one not only due to the forecast accuracy but mainly due to advanced techniques.

Of great value is the version of the future of the Russian politics which is presented in a “futurologist” section by those experts who were directly involved in forming a sociologic outlook on the post-Crimean politics. The 2016-2018 campaigns gave rise to tendencies and “seeds” of factors often referred to as “2018 surprises”, but the majority of them are yet to define the character of big politics both in 2021 and in 2024.

Authors:

Yulia M. Baskakova — Russian political scientist, Cand.Sci. (Pol.), head of VCIOM’s Department of Social Modeling and Forecasting.

Leonty G. Byzov — Russian sociologist, Cand.Sci. (Econ.), specialist in political sociology, sociology of culture.

Mikhail A. Vyadro — Russian political scientist, Cand.Sci. (Pol.).

Igor V. Gavrilov — Russian political scientist.

Mikhail V. Mamonov — Russian political scientist, Cand.Sci. (Pol.), Head of VCIOM’s Department of Political Analysis and Consulting.

Valery V. Fedorov  — Russian political scientist and sociologist, Cand.Sci. (Pol.), VCIOM’s General Director, VCIOM’S Scientific Council Chairman, Member of VCIOM Board of Directors, Editor-in-chief of “Monitoring: Social and Economic Changes” journal.

Oleg L. Chernozub — Russian sociologist and consultant, Head of Center for Social and Economic Research at National Institute of Sociology of Management under RANEPA.

The past elections portrayed in the book would be incomplete without the opinions of the parties involved in political struggle and expert observers. That is why we asked 14 colleagues to speak out on the relevant issues; their discussions are captured in the monograph. The “Virtual round table” involved:

Dmitry V. Badovsky - political scientist, Head of Foundation “Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (ISEPI);

Aleksey N. Vysotsky – political strategist;

Abbas R. Gallyamov – political scientist;

Dmitry G. Gusev - political scientist, Founder of Bakster Group;

Igor V. Zadorin - founder and head of ZIRCON Research Group since 1989;

Sergey A. Zverev – public figure, state official, professor, public relation specialist. CROS president;

Konstantin E. Kalachev – Russian political strategist and political leader;

Gleb S. Kuznetsov  - political scientist, head of Expert Council (Institute of Social Research);

Boris I. Makarenko - Russian political scientist, president of Center for Political Technologies, Professor at National Research University Higher School of Economy;

Oleg A. Matveychev - Russian philosopher, political scientist and spin doctor, mass media expert, Professor at National Research University  Higher School of Economy;

Igor E. Mintusov - Russian political scientist and political consultant;

Evgeny N. Minchenko - Russian political scientist and political strategist, expert on lobbying and political risk assessment. President of MINCHENKO CONSULTING Communication Group;

Alexander A. Pozhalov - political scientist, Director of Research at Foundation “Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies (ISEPI);

Mikhail Sleslarenk  - Head of Center for Political Studies and Consulting.

 

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!
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