Press release №2052
19.03.2018
2018 RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SURVEYS, FORECASTS, AND RESULTS

IN BRIEF

  • The voter turnout was expected to be 63-67%. CES’s preliminary results based on voter turnout were 67.5%
  • Predictable result for V. Putin was 69-73%
  • according to CEC data, Putin gained 76.7% of votes

The 18 March 2018 election official results differ from estimates by 2-3%. Among all candidates Vladimir Putin crossed the upper limit and Vladimir Zhirinovsky and Xenia Sobchak crossed the lower limit. 

MOSCOW, March 19, 2018. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents comparative data of surveys, forecasts, exit poll and CEC preliminary data following the Russian presidential election.

Turnout

Based on March 5-9 data, 74% of Russians were determined to visit the polling stations; according to March 12-17 data, the share was 75.7%.

As to the March 9 forecast, the voter turnout was expected to be 63-67%.

Based on the exit poll data the voter turnout was 63.7%. The Russian presidential election turnout was 67.5% upon the Central Election Commission estimates.

Voting results

According to the March 5-9 data, Vladimir Putin’s electoral rating was 69%; based on the March 12-17 data it was 68.6%. V.Putin’s estimates were about 69-73%. According to VCIOM exit poll figures, 73.9% of voters cast their vote for Vladimir Putin. According to CEC preliminary data, V. Putin gained 76.7% of votes.

According to figures provided by the Russian CEC, Pavel Grudinin was ranked second (11.8%). Grudinin’s electoral rating was 7% based on the March 5-9 data and 7.4% based on the March 12-17 data. VCIOM expert forecast suggested 10-14%; the exit poll data was 11.2%.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky was ranked third upon official preliminary data (5.7%). His electoral support was 5%based on the March 5-9 survey data and 4.7% based on the March 12-17 data. VCIOM expert estimates were 8-12%; the exit poll results showed 6.7%.

The VCIOM-Sputnik surveys were conducted in 2018. Sample (for each day) involved 1,000 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 1.6% (for the sample of 4,000 respondents) and 1.3% (for the sample of 6,000 respondents). In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

  SURVEY March 5-7, 9* FORECAST March  9 (TURNOUT) SURVEY March 12-17* EXIT POLL (TURNOUT) VOTING PRELIMINARY RESULTS. CEC (TURNOUT)**
I will definitely come 74 63-67 75.7 63.7 67.5
Likely to come 9 - 8.8 - -
Unlikely to come 2 - 3.3 - -
I will definitely not come 4 - 4.4 - -
Don’t know 1 - 1.0 - -
Not decided yet; I will decide right before the elections 9 - 6.8 - -

* Will you take part in the elections in March 2018 or not? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

** CEC data, March 19, 2018, 11.00 a.m. Moscow time

  SURVEY March 5-7, 9* FORECAST March  9 SURVEY March 12-17* EXIT POLL VOTING PRELIMINARY RESULTS. CEC **
Putin Vladimir 69 69-73 68.6 73.9 76.7
Grudinin Pavel 7 10-14 7.4 11.2 11.8
Zhirinovsky Vladimir 5 8-12 4.7 6.7 5.7
Sobchak Xenia 2 2-3 1.2 2.5 1.7
Yavlinsky Grigory 1 1-2 1.1 1.6 1.0
Titov Boris <1 <1 0.6 1.1 0.8
Baburin Sergey 1 <1 0.6 1.0 0.7
Suraykin Maksim <1 <1 0.3 0.8 0.7
I will come and spoil the ballot 1 - 0.8 1.2 0.9
I would not take part in the voting 3 - 2.4 - -
Don’t know 11 - 12.3 - -

* If the Presidential election took place next Sunday and the list of candidates looked as follows who would you rather vote for? One answer is possible (closed-ended question, one answer, % of all respondents)

** CEC data, March 19, 2018, 11.00 a.m. Moscow time

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!

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