VCIOM has launched a research project devoted to the 2018 presidential election. The election results will be available at https://2018.wciom.ru/, in an Android and iOS app, on Telegram (@WCIOMofficial), and on company’s VKontakte, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram profiles.
Up-to-date information on elections: results of VCIOM studies on voters’ mobilization, voters’ social and demographic portrait. Emotional perception of candidates, queries to candidates, ratings and anti-ratings, expert forecasts, and election prediction market.
Data of VCIOM-Sputnik surveys (from early 2018; on a daily basis; 1000 persons are surveyed every day). Daily updates on the website and other resources.
According to the latest data, the share of Russians who are willing to cast their vote for Vladimir Putin in presidential elections (if the voting to be held next Sunday) is 73.8%; 7.2% support Pavel Grudinin; 4.7% would vote for Vladimir Zhirinovsky; 1.0% opt for Xenia Sobchak; 0.6% - Grigory Yavlinsky; 0.3% - Boris Titov.
Anti-rating is headed by Xenia Sobchak (89.8%). Detailed information on ratings, voters’ preferences based on their social and demographic characteristics are available at https://2018.wciom.ru/index.php?id=1234.
Public awareness, mobilization, interest towards election
At the beginning of the year the Russian voters’ pre-election awareness reached 85%; this is the share of those who know that the voting will be held in March 2018. The voter turnout is expected to be 67% (the share of Russians willing to take part in the voting, who said “I will definitely participate”). Seventy-fore percent of respondents are interested in the elections.
Based on the turnout figures (answers of those who will definitely participate in the voting), the candidate rating is as follows: Vladimir Putin – 81.1%; Pavel Grudinin – 7.6%; Vladimir Zhirinovsky – 4.2.%; Xenia Sobchak – 0.7%; Grigory Yavlinsky – 0.6%; Boris Titov – 0.4%. Detailed information is available at https://2018.wciom.ru/index.php?id=1238.
Almost two-thirds of respondents (64%) are confident that the candidates’ pre-election campaign is open and honest. About one-third of Russians (34%) consider that the elections will be impartial; 46% say that small violations (which will not affect the final result) may take place; and 17% say that the results will be substantially distorted. Those data as well as assessments of legitimacy of the election are available at https://2018.wciom.ru/index.php?id=1265.
Agitation and communication
Assessing the election campaign coverage by mass media, 68% of respondents say that the information about the elections is sufficient. At the same time, 51% feel a lack of information about the pre-election program of candidates. A further 61% consider mass media to be objective and impartial. Details are available at https://2018.wciom.ru/index.php?id=1263.
Public query to candidates has to do with how to tackle low salaries, minimum living wage, cost of living (23%), low pensions (18%), and healthcare problems (17%). Data on the topics that bother most of Russians and levels of protest mood are available at https://2018.wciom.ru/index.php?id=1261.
Election prediction market
Election prediction market is a special VCIOM’s project where participants can predict candidate ratings. This prediction technique was first launched during the 2016 State Duma election and proved to be successful.
Prediction market functions as any other market. Each participant gets a certain amount of virtual money and a number of shares for each candidate. The idea is to maximize your capital gain by predicting the behavior of each market participant, in other words, to buy low and to sell high. Participants are not proposed to predict the election results, but they have to assess the current situation, trying to predict how it may evolve; they buy and sell stocks to increase their virtual capital. They can bet on voter turnout too. Market predictions must be made constantly to gain money.
Participation in the project is free, so anyone can try. After filling in a questionnaire for research purposes, you can submit the registration forms at https://2018.wciom.ru/index.php?id=1268. Those traders who received the highest capital gain will be awarded. We invite to discussion all those who are interested in elections and their results as well as those who keep track of political events and are ready to give predictions!
Awareness Index shows how much Russians are aware of the date of the upcoming presidential elections. The higher the index value is, the higher the awareness level is. The index is based on the question “Do you know the date of the next Russia’s presidential elections? If you do, please, specify month and year”; it is calculated as the sum of positive answers. Index is measured in points and can fluctuate from 0 to 100.
The VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide surveys were conducted in 2017 and 2018. The surveys involved Russians aged 18 and over. Total number of persons interviewed per day was 600 in 2017 and 1,000 in 2018. Survey technique: stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5% (for the sample of 1,800 persons) and 1.8% (for the sample of 3,000 persons). In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
|Do you know the date of the next Russia’s presidential elections? If you do, please, specify month and year (open-ended question, one answer, % of all respondents, index in p.p.)|
|Right answer (March, spring 2018)||16||17||17||13||14||19||27||32||41||69||85|
|Wrong answer (2018, with no month precision)||28||32||30||37||38||32||29||31||27||13||4|
|I hear about that for the first time/No answer/ Don’t know||44||40||45||42||40||41||38||32||26||15||8|
* Sample size: 2000 respondents; maximum margin of error does not exceed 2.2%
|Will you take part in the Presidential election taking place in March 2018? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of all respondents)|
|Not decided yet; I will decide right before the elections||15||14||16||21||18||17||17||17||15||12||15||15|
*Sample size: 3000 respondents; maximum margin of error does not exceed 1.8%
|If the Presidential election took place next Sunday and the list of candidates looked as follows who would you rather vote for? You can give any number of answers (closed-ended question, one answer, % of all respondents)|
|III.17||IV.17||V.17||VI.17||VII.17||VIII.17||IX.17||X.17||XI.17||15-17. XII.17||18-20. XII.17||25-27. XII.17||8-10. I.18*|
|I will come and spoil the ballot||0.4||0.9||0.5||0.4||0.8||0.5||1.0||0.9||0.8||0.6||0.6||0.9||0.6|
|I would not take part in voting||5.4||6.3||5.0||5.1||5.2||4.3||4.8||4.7||5.2||5.7||4.8||7.6||6.3|
* Sample size: 3000 respondents; maximum margin of error does not exceed 1.8%
|Which candidate would you never vote for? You can give any number of answers (closed-ended question, any number of answers, % of all respondents)|
|I will come and spoil the ballot||0.3||0.1||0.5||0.5||0.8||0.6||0.7||0.2||0.1|
|I would not take part in voting||4.3||4.5||5.5||4.4||5.5||1.9||2.7||2.4||2.2|
*Sample size: 2000 respondents; maximum margin of error does not exceed 2.2
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com. as well as distributed by VCIOM. The reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!