Press release №1973
12.07.2017
MONITORING ON THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE

IN BRIEF

  • 72% of Russians keep track of the situation in Ukraine
  • Only 5% of those who follow the situation notice normalisation
  • they are opposed by 52% who point to deterioration

More than two-thirds of Russians keep track of events in Ukraine; negative opinions prevail.

MOSCOW, July 12, 2017. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a survey devoted to Russian assessments of the situation in Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine relations.

The share of Russians who are interested in political events in Ukraine has slightly decreased (77% in February and 72% in July). At the same time, there is a steady decrease in the number of those who keep track of the situation on a regular basis (from 38% in January 2015 to 18% in July 2017). As before, the level of interest is dependent on respondents’ age (young people are less interested compared to the older respondents).

During the first years of internal political crisis those Russians who kept track of the situation often referred to it as “civil war”, however this year more Russians describe the situation as “chaos”, “anarchy”, “unlawfulness”,  “banditism”.  

After a drop to -43 p. in February (which is close to the level of spring and summer 2014), the Ukrainian crisis index* went up to –6 p. in July (in a range from -100 to 100 p.). Positive dynamics is observed amid a decreased number of those who report escalating tensions (from 71% to 52%) and an increase in the number of those who see no changes (from 24% to 41%). Thus, as before most of respondents who are aware of the situation think it is not getting better. Only 5% notice normalization.

Assessments of Russian-Ukrainian relations show no improvements: tensions are reported by 36%, and hostility - by 25%. The overall percentage of positive opinions does not exceed 10%.

*Ukrainian crisis index is based on the question “In your opinion, in what direction has the situation in Ukraine been evolving lately?" and shows the direction of changes in Ukraine. The index is calculated as the difference of the sum of answers “situation is being normalized”, “situation is neither better, nor worse; nothing is changing much” and “situation is getting more and more tense; it is deteriorating”; it is measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100. The higher the value of index is, the more confidence that the situation in Ukraine will normalize is.

The VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide survey was conducted on July 5-7, 2017. The survey involved 1,800 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

Results for the 2006-2016 studies are based on household surveys.
Do you personally keep track of the current political developments in Ukraine? (closed-ended question, one answer %)
  Yes, very attentively Yes, from time to time No , I don’t Don’t know
VII.06* 15 52 31 2
VIII. 06* 14 43 41 2
IV.07 ** 14 50 35 1
1-2.II. 14 26 46 27 1
22-23.II14 27 47 26 0
1-2.III.14 35 45 20 0
8-9.III .14 39 45 16 0
15-16.III.14 39 46 15 0
IV.14 30 47 22 1
VI.14 39 47 14 0
VIII.14 32 48 19 1
X.14 29 49 22 0
I.15 38 45 16 1
IX.15 25 46 29 0
VIII.16 20 47 33 0
II.17 23 54 23 0
VII.17 18 54 28 0
* In 2006, there was a conflict between the Ukrainian president and the Verkhovna Rada; the Verkhovna Rada passed a vote of no confidence in the government.    
**In April 2007, V. Yushchenko dismissed the Verkhovna Rada and called new elections.    
Can you describe in two or three words what is happening now in Ukraine?  (open-ended question, not more than three answers, % of those who keep track of the situation in Ukraine)
  22-23.II14 1-2.III.14 IV.14 VI.14 VIII.14 X.14 I. 15 IX.15 VIII.16 II.17 VII.17
Anarchy, lawlessness, banditism 29 28 26 36 16 19 17 17 32 33 37
Civil war 27 28 37 50 59 40 50 36 20 26 19
Coup d’état, seizure of power / fight for power, money, territory 25 32 23 11 6 4 3 7 5 7 8
Aggravation of Ukraine-Russia relations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8
Genocide, killing of civilians, terror 0 0 0 0 15 12 17 6 3 10 7
Disaster/nightmare 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7
Fascism, nationalism 0 0 0 0 2 7 3 2 2 4 6
People suffer/ cold/hunger 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6
Full destabilization, country’s collapse   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 8 1 4
Wrong policies 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 3 4
Resumption of bombardment of Donetsk 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 4
Rallies 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3
Poroshenko tries to get assistance from USA and/or  EU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Inactivity of authorities 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Crisis, difficult economic situation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
Disinformation/information warware 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Political game 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Farce, circus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Like 1990s in Russia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Fight for freedom/democratization 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Everything is okay 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
American provocation, Western intervention 6 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0
Anti-Russian mood 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
It is not clear what is happening there 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Ceasefire, preparation for election 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 2 1 0 0
Revolution 8 8 4 0 0 0  0 0 0 0 0
Violations of peace treaty conditions / Violation of Minsk Protocol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0
Other 1 5 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 6 2
Don’t know 8 6 10 7 6 15 18 12 29 13 10
In your opinion, in what direction has the situation in Ukraine been evolving lately?  (closed-ended question, one answer % of those who keep track of the situation in Ukraine)
  1-2.III.14 8-9.III.14 15-16.III.14 IV.14 VI.14 VIII.14 X.14 I. 15 IX.15 VIII.16 II.17 VII.17
The situation is being normalized 7 10 9 4 2 2 10 4 6 7 4 5
The situation is neither better, nor worse; nothing is changing  much 22 35 36 22 19 23 50 25 34 40 24 41
The situation is getting more and more tense; it is deteriorating  68 51 52 69 78 72 38 63 52 41 71 52
Don’t know 3 4 3 5 1 3 2 8 8 12 1 2
Ukrainian crisis index -39 -6 -7 -43 -57 -47 22 -34 -12 6 -43 -6

 

 

How would you assess the current relations between Russia and Ukraine? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
  98 99 00 I. 10 V.10 13 I.14 III.14 X.15 VIII.16 II.17 VII.17
Tense 15 5 5 27 7 23 16 45 38 37 39 36
Hostile 4 1 1 6 1 3 2 8 29 26 25 25
Cool 25 12 16 32 16 29 23 14 11 14 12 13
Friendly  8 12 10 1 10 7 9 10 4 2 4 5
Good neighborly 9 26 20 4 15 7 11 7 2 2 4 3
Rather warm 8 13 20 4 15 6 7 3 2 1 1 1
Neutral 21 19 22 20 31 22 28 10 9 11 11 10
Don’t know 10 12 6 6 5 3 4 3 5 7 4
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!
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