Press release №1967
28.06.2017
IF A WAR BREAKS OUT…

IN BRIEF

  • The military threat comes from the U.S., and the main Russia’s ally is China.

The VCIOM-Sputnik survey data suggest that Russia’s potential military rivals are the U.S. and Ukraine, and allies - Belarus, China and Kazakhstan.

MOSCOW, June 28, 2017. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a survey devoted to the military threat - Russia’s potential allies and rivals.

More than one-third of Russians feel militarily threatened. A potential threat comes from the U.S.A. (63% among those who believe that there is a military threat) and Ukraine (31%). Compared to the sample mean, these countries are less likely to be mentioned by supporters of non-parliamentary parties (31% and 12%, respectively) and residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg (51% and 23%). This is followed by NATO countries (7%), China (5%), Great Britain (4%), ISIL (4%), Syria (3%), Germany (3%) and other countries.

At the same time, Russians say that allied support might come from China (41%), Belarus (25%) and Kazakhstan (18%). The former USSR countries gained about 20% in total. Some respondents expect support from the US. and Ukraine; however this share is small (2% per each group). Every tenth (10%) considers that in the event of an attack there is no country Russia can seek help from.

The VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide survey was conducted on June 16-17, 2017, using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia, and involved 1,200 respondents. Russians aged 18 and over took part in the survey. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 3.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

If you think that there is a military threat to Russia, what country does it come from?  (open-ended question, not more than three answers, % of those who consider that there is a threat to Russia coming from particular country today; answers mentioned by at least 1% of respondents during the latest survey)
  Total respondents A Just Russia party Supporters of LDPR Supporters of CPRF Supporters of United Russia party Supporters of non-parliamentary parties
USA 63 49 63 67 68 31
Ukraine 31 38 22 30 36 12
NATO countries 7 9 12 6 6 7
China 5 2 3 10 4 0
Great Britain 4 7 2 3 4 0
ISIL 4 9 3 3 2 18
Syria 3 0 6 1 3 2
Germany 3 0 4 0 4 0
Korea 2 0 3 2 3 0
Baltic states 2 0 0 2 2 14
Eastern countries 2 0 0 0 1 19
EU countries 1 1 1 1 2 0
Turkey 1 0 2 2 1 0
Lithuania 1 3 2 3 1 0
France 1 0 0 0 1 0
Latvia 1 0 2 3 0 0
South Korea 1 0 0 0 1 0
North  Korea 1 0 0 0 1 0
Poland 1 0 0 3 0 0
Mongolia 1 0 0 0 1 0
Other  countries 4 0 0 0 5 4
Don’t know 12 7 14 12 11 14
If you think that a particular country may attack Russia, what country can it be?  (open-ended question, not more than three answers, % of those who consider that there is a threat to Russia coming from particular country today; answers mentioned by at least 1% of respondents during the latest survey)
  Total respondents Moscow and St.Petersburg Million cities More than 500 ths 100–500 ths Less than 100 ths Rural area
USA 63 51 56 60 59 76 65
Ukraine 31 23 26 39 33 35 28
NATO countries 7 16 1 2 8 6 8
China 5 14 4 9 2 7 2
Great Britain 4 5 0 13 5 4 2
ISIL 4 7 6 1 8 1 1
Syria 3 0 0 1 3 1 8
Germany 3 5 0 0 3 1 5
Korea 2 6 3 3 0 2 3
Baltic states 2 0 0 0 1 3 4
Eastern countries 2 0 14 0 1 2 0
EU countries 1 1 2 0 1 4 1
Turkey 1 1 0 0 1 1 2
Lithuania 1 0 0 0 3 1 1
France 1 3 0 0 1 1 0
Latvia 1 3 0 0 1 0 1
South Korea 1 0 0 0 0 3 0
North  Korea 1 0 0 4 0 1 1
Poland 1 0 0 0 2 0 1
Mongolia 1 5 0 0 0 0 0
Other  countries 4 6 2 3 4 3 4
Don’t know 12 18 10 11 12 11 11
What countries could be Russia’s allies, support us in the event of an attack on Russia?  (open-ended question, not more than three answers, % answers mentioned by at least 1% of respondents during the latest survey)
  Total respondents A Just Russia party Supporters of LDPR Supporters of CPRF Supporters of United Russia party Supporters of non-parliamentary parties
China 41 41 37 41 46 22
Belarus 25 30 22 21 24 31
Kazakhstan 18 17 20 21 18 24
India 9 6 11 16 10 3
Former USSR countries 4 6 5 1 5 0
France 3 2 0 1 4 2
Japan 3 3 3 6 3 1
Armenia 3 2 1 9 2 3
Germany 2 2 4 0 3 2
USA 2 3 1 1 3 3
Syria 2 3 0 5 2 0
Turkey 2 5 1 1 2 2
Serbia 2 1 2 1 1 5
Korea 2 0 3 2 1 5
Ukraine 2 4 3 2 2 0
Mongolia 1 0 4 0 2 0
Tajikistan 1 1 1 3 1 2
Azerbaijan 1 0 1 5 0 8
Uzbekistan 1 1 3 2 1 1
Iran 1 0 2 1 1 0
Kyrgyzstan 1 0 2 2 1 0
Poland 1 1 0 0 1 2
Great Britain 1 0 0 2 1 0
Bulgaria 1 0 1 1 0 5
Moldavia 1 0 0 0 1 0
Abkhazia 1 0 0 0 1 0
SCO countries 1 0 0 1 0 0
Italy 1 0 0 1 1 0
Asian countries 1 1 0 1 1 2
North Korea 1 0 1 1 0 1
Saudi Arabia 1 0 0 0 1 0
Slovenia 1 0 0 0 1 0
Other counties 7 6 11 12 6 6
None 10 11 9 12 7 15
Don’t know 23 19 25 19 22 22
What countries could be Russia’s allies, support us in the event of an attack on Russia?  (open-ended question, not more than three answers, % answers mentioned by at least 1% of respondents during the latest survey)
  Total respondents  Aged  18-24 Aged  25-34 Aged  35-44 Aged  45-59 Aged  60 and more
China 41 45 45 46 38 37
Belarus 25 12 23 24 29 25
Kazakhstan 18 6 14 16 27 19
India 9 4 5 13 9 11
Former USSR countries 4 11 2 1 5 3
France 3 4 6 2 2 2
Japan 3 5 3 3 1 3
Armenia 3 4 2 1 4 3
Germany 2 2 5 1 2 2
USA 2 3 3 2 1 2
Syria 2 0 2 3 1 3
Turkey 2 2 1 2 2 3
Serbia 2 0 1 1 2 3
Korea 2 1 2 1 2 2
Ukraine 2 3 1 2 1 2
Mongolia 1 2 2 1 1 1
Tajikistan 1 0 2 1 1 1
Azerbaijan 1 1 0 0 3 2
Uzbekistan 1 1 1 1 1 1
Iran 1 0 1 2 1 1
Kyrgyzstan 1 0 1 1 1 2
Chechen Republic 1 2 2 1 1 0
Poland 1 0 1 1 1 0
Great Britain 1 2 2 0 0 0
Bulgaria 1 2 0 1 0 1
Moldavia 1 0 0 0 1 1
Abkhazia 1 0 0 0 1 1
SCO countries 1 0 0 0 0 2
Italy 1 0 2 0 0 0
Asian countries 1 0 0 0 1 1
North Korea 1 0 1 1 0 0
Saudi Arabia 1 0 1 1 0 0
Slovenia 1 0 0 0 2 0
Other counties 6 9 4 7 7 5
None 10 3 11 10 10 12
Don’t know 23 30 21 22 21 24
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!
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