Press release №1947
17.04.2017
TRUMP’S AMERICA: NEITHER FRIEND, NOR ENEMY…?

IN BRIEF

  • The Russia-US relations Index dropped to 68 p. in April this year
  • About a third of Russians (31%) distrust American president Donald Trump
  • 34% of Russians hope Russia-US relations will strengthen in the next two or three years
  • 15% expect deterioration in relations.

The recent developments have had a negative impact on the public attitudes towards president Trump. Approximately a third of Russians think that a military conflict is possible between Russia and the U.S.A., according to the VCIOM-Omnibus daily survey data.

MOSCOW, April 17, 2017. The Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the results of a survey devoted the Russia-U.S. relations and the attitudes of Russians towards Donald Trump.

Over the recent month the Russian-American relations have deteriorated: this year April Index is -68 p. compared to the March’s reading of -45 p. Most of respondents provide negative assessments; 42% think the relations are tense; 12% - hostile. Military confrontation between Russia and the U.S.A. and the NATO countries still appears to be impossible or hardly possible for the majority of Russians (63%); at the same time, the share of those who think that a war is possible (or that the war is on) reached 30%.

Today Russians perceive Donald Trump worse than a month ago; the share of negative responses increased from 7% to 39%, and the share of the positive ones has decreased from 38% to 13%. As to emotions, Russians express distrust (31%), disappointment (19%) or indifference (29%) towards Trump.  Compared to March, fewer Russians report respect, liking or hope.

According to the VCIOM-Sputnik daily omnibus survey data, a fifth of respondents (20%) believe that the Russia-US relations have strengthened since Trump’s inauguration; almost the same number of respondents (17%) say the relations have worsened. Most of Russians (55%) still see neither progress, nor regress in relations.   

Optimism about the future of Russia-US relations has decreased: today the share of Russians who expect improvements in the bilateral relations over the next two or three years is 34%, compared to 58% of those who said so in March. Fifteen percent of respondents have negative expectations; a further 38% consider that the situation will not change.

The Medialogia Company analyzed 862,000 mentions of Donald Trump in the Russian media over a year. Most of mentions were in November 2016 (153,000), January 2017 (187, 000) and February 2017 (140,000). In November the media reported that D. Trump won the US elections and cited his first statements. The reaction of the international community to the Trump’s victory and the first political forecasts were also actively covered by the media. In January the media provided coverage of Trump’s inauguration and anti-Trump manifestations. Besides, the media told about Trump’s conversation with V. Putin; in February president’s decisions and appointments were announced.

*Russia-US relations Index shows how Russian residents assess the bilateral relations today. The Index is based on the question “How would you assess the current state of Russian-U.S relations?”; it is calculated as the difference of the sum of positive responses (“normal, calm”, “good, good-neighborly”, “friendly”) and negative responses (“cool”, “tense”, “hostile”). The Index is measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100. The higher the value of index is, the better Russians assess the bilateral relations.  

The VCIOM-Sputnik Russian nationwide survey was conducted on April 11-12, 2017, using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia, and involved 1200 respondents. Russians aged 18 and over took part in the survey. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 3.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

The results for the 2005-2016 surveys are based on household interviews.

The Russian media monitoring and analysis is carried out by the Medialogia Company using the Medialogia database of 40,100 sources such as television, radio, newspaper, magazines information agencies and online media. The period of study was April 2016 through April 2017.

How would you assess the current state of Russian-U.S relations? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
  05 II.08 VI.08 IX.08 09 10 11 12 II.13 VIII.13 XI.14 X.16 III.2017 IV.2017
Tense   8 12 12 37 13 5 10 14 17 19 49 46 33 42
Cool   22 26 27 29 26 17 24 26 35 31 21 18 30 28
Hostile   4 3 2 11 2 1 2 2 4 3 20 24 8 12
Normal, calm   38 36 41 14 37 46 42 38 31 32 1 4 17 9
Friendly   9 4 5 2 5 7 6 5 3 4 5 1 4 3
Good, good-neighborly 12 7 8 2 9 16 12 10 5 6 1 1 5 2
Don’t know   7 12 5 5 8 8 4 5 5 5 3 6 3 4
Index* 25 6 13 -59 10 46 24 11 -17 -11 -83 -82 -45 -68
In your opinion, what is the possibility of war between Russia and the U.S.A in the next months? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
  III.2014 IV.2017
War is absolutely impossible 25 16
War is hardly possible 51 47
War is quite possible; it may start 16 16
War is on now 4 14
Don’t know 4 7
What are your attitudes towards American president Donald Trump?   (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
  III.2017 IV.2017
Likely positive 38 13
Indifferent 45 38
Likely negative 7 39
Don’t know 10 10
What feelings do you have about Donald Trump?  (closed-ended question, not more than two answers, %)
  III.2017 IV.2017
Negative feelings
Distrust 13 31
Disappointment 2 19
Skepsis 6 9
Dislikes 3 8
Condemnation 1 5
Hatred 1 2
Positive feelings
Hope 24 11
Respect 17 6
Liking 15 5
Trust 11 4
Admiration 2 1
Love 0 0
Neutral feelings
Indifference 28 29
Don’t know 7 6
In your opinion, has the relationship between Russia and the U.S.A. changed after Donald Trump’s election?  (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
  III.2017 IV.2017
Yes, relationship has considerably improved 4 2
Yes, relationship has slightly improved 32 18
No, nothing has changed 53 55
Yes, relationship has slightly deteriorated 3 12
Yes, relationship has considerably deteriorated 1 5
Don’t know 7 8
How will Russia-U.S. relationship change over the next two or three years? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
  III.2017 IV.2017
It is likely to improve 58 34
It is likely to deteriorate 4 15
Nothing will change 28 38
Don’t know 10 13

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory! The use of the Medialogia system content, fully or partially, must be accompanied by the reference to the Medialogia Company.

  Results of our study
  Ratings
  In focus
  News
  Subscription