Research is conducted on both the federal and regional levels. Federal research is done via weekly monitoring, which allows us to track socio-political processes dynamically, quickly determine changes in public opinion, study problematic backgrounds, and forecast political developments in Russia. Our research includes:
Regional research is carried out when needed.
Russia Public Opinion Research Center continues the project which aims at studying the best world practices of analyzing and forecasting electoral processes.
The study of American experience of election forecasting is planned for October 2015. A trip of a research group to the US and a series of meetings with electoral forecasting experts from the leading centers have been planned. The meetings subjects are: exchanging experience of electoral forecasting, discussing the perspectives of electoral studies, the methods in use, including the ideas/experience of using the combined methods of acquiring and analyzing data, big data, interdisciplinary approach to the analysis of the electoral processes.
We hope that this project will allow us to unite the efforts of electoral forecasting specialists from Europe, Asia and America, to find ways of improving the methods of forecasting, to expand and increase the quality of professional dialogue and practical research in this area.
The project is carried out in cooperation with the Institute of socio-economic and political researches (ISEPR Foundation) and the Eurasian Monitor Agency – a non-profit partnership bringing together researchers from 14 post-soviet countries – Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia)
Russia Public Opinion Research Center initiates the project for studying foreign experience of producing electoral forecasts
During the first stage of the project, sociological forecasts of outcomes of the United Kingdom general elections, Israeli elections for the Knesset, Polish Presidential and Moldovan parliamentary elections will be analyzed. These cases have attracted attention of the researchers because, despite having a large number of pre-election forecasts, they turned out extremely inaccurate (the mean error for leader’s share has amounted to 3% during the last general elections in the UK, 5% in Russia, 6% in Moldova and Poland, and 8% in Israel). The aim of the research is to discover possible reasons for the failure of the pollsters.
The project is carried out in cooperation with the Institute of socio-economic and political researches (ISEPR Foundation).
A new book dedicated to the results of electoral behavior research from the collective of Russia Public Opinion Research Center authors has been published
From plebiscite to elections: How and why did the Russians vote during the 2011-2012 elections (Moscow, “Praxis” publishing house and consulting group, 2013 – 496 p. (Society Image) – 2000 copies
The 2011-2012 elections took place in an atmosphere of incredibly sharp and tense competition. For the first time in years the elections resembled a game with an indefinite result, while for the last decade the outcome of election battles has always been predetermined and programmed. Our book is dedicated to a detailed analysis of the process of evolution of political preferences of the Russian electorate that took place during this double campaign. The basis for the book comes from a massive (and relatively rare for Russian sociology) research – “Electoral Panel”, which was organized by the collective of the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center (Russia Public Opinion Research Center). Sociologists will have the opportunity to repeat this research only in 2036 – provided that the laws that regulate the election process in Russia do not undergo another radical change. Again, like in 2011-2012, the whole electoral cycle will follow the same narrative, with the same characters and similar agenda. This configuration of the election calendar has created a perfect situation for a research experiment, which we tried not to waste.
Russia Public Opinion Research Center has published an election forecast for Venezuelan Presidential elections. The forecast is based on social media data.
Russia Public Opinion Research Center has published an election forecast for the Parliamentary elections of the Republic of Armenia
The forecast is based on the results of a quantitative research that was carried out in the period from April 4 to April 10, 2012 and included 1600 respondents.
A new issue (5 September-October 2012) of the “Public Opinion Monitoring: economic and social changes” magazine has been published. The issue is devoted to the discussion of the results of the “Electoral Panel 2011-2012”, a research project initiated by Russia Public Opinion Research Center.
In the rubric “Theme of the issue: Electoral Panel” you may find the materials by J. M. Baskakova “We haven’t voted for this authority: absenteeism during the 2011-2012 elections”, S. V. Lvov “Controlled myth-making of the 2011-2012 political season”, M.V. Mamonov “Electoral Choice and political activity: connections and contradictions”.
The results of electoral behavior research “Electoral Panel 2011-2012” have been made available to the public
Electoral Panel 2011-2012 is an open research project that has been initiated and sponsored by Russia Public Opinion Research Center and is aimed at studying the specifics of electoral behavior of the Russian population. The project relies on a wide, public, representative empirical base.
It is based on an all-Russian panel study (7 waves, 1787 respondents, more than 350 questions) carried out by Russia Public Opinion Research Center during the period of federal pre-election campaign (Septmber 2011 – March 2012).
The project is open for any researcher who studies the questions of electoral behavior, political culture and many other aspects of political life of the Russians, mechanisms of mobilization, means of mass communication and the political landscape of modern Russia.
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Russia Public Opinion Research Center invites sociologists, politologists, specialists of adjacent spheres (historians, psychologists etc.) – employees of academic institutions, analytical centers, pedagogues, postgraduates, independent researchers, journalists – to work with the database and participate in the preparation of analytical materials.
Russia Public Opinion Research Center has started the realization of a unique research initiative dedicated to studying the opinions of Russian voters within the boundaries of the next federal electoral cycle
The project will include several waves of panel study that starts in several days’ time and will go on till March 2012. A panel study means that an all-Russian sample will be created; its participants will answer the questions monthly. This will allow the sociologists to uncover what factors really influence the opinions of the electorate, and improve the quality of pre-election forecasts.
15-16 of March, 2012
The Second International Sociological Science and Applied Research Conference “Continuing Grushin” took place in RANEPA (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) on 15 and 16 March 2012
A whole section of the conference was dedicated to discussing the possibility of using expert interviews in electoral studies and using the results of expert interviews to make election forecasts on different levels.
6 April 2011
Russia Public Opinion Research Center International Science and Applied Research Conference “Exit-Polls in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States: theory and practice of electoral studies”
On the 6th of April, 2011, Russia Public Opinion Research Center has organized the Second International Science and Applied Research Conference, dedicated to the experience and the possibilities of conducting exit-polls in Russia and the CIS: “Exit-Polls in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States: theory and practice of electoral studies. The program of the conference may be found here.
120 specialists from Russian and foreign companies, government bodies, political parties, civil organizations, academies and the media took part in the conference. The geography of the event included 7 countries (apart from participants from Russia, the conference hosted guests from Azerbaijan, Belarus, Great Britain, Lithuania, Moldova and Ukraine) and 16 Russian cities.
The discussion that took place within the conference was focused on two general topics: the analysis of international experience of conducting exit-polls and methodological aspects of “polls upon exit”. A task group aimed at studying the technologies of election forecasting has been created as a result of the conference.
An archive of forecasts concerning the distribution of seats in the State Duma for the period of existence of the project (since 2010).
The site is dedicated to the 2012 Presidential elections. It features materials related to VTsIOM studies: analytical articles, ratings, forecasts and Exit-poll data.
The dynamics of electoral preferences, weekly and monthly approval and disapproval ratings of government bodies and civil institutions.
Exit-polls (polls upon leaving the precinct) are conducted during elections of any level.
It is an open research project that has been initiated and sponsored by VTsIOM and is aimed at studying the specifics of electoral behavior of the Russian population. The project relies on a wide, public, representative empirical base.